Great analysis here, fellow engineers. I know the Acela Corridor is controlled by a relative few(like the Bolsheviks), but I hope the Real People there will vote out the communists. Maybe they have to be frozen into action.
You EBBs are a treasure. Hopefully others are catching on soon. Using actual EIA historical data and projecting future demand is a great analysis method because it eliminates all the bickering over “simulation” using monte carlo and guesses about how weather relates to demand. It also happens to be the method I employed in my public commentary to the Wyoming Senate last year. It is pretty easy for people to understand as long as they can read graphs.
Here is a related item. In a moment of excessive exuberance our Title 37 was modified to demand carbon capture for all current and future coal/gas plants in a bid to make sure fossil fuels could be used in future. Now see what happens.
1.No increase in fossil fuel supplied power is possible because existing plants are what they are.
2.New capital devoted to thermal plants amounts to 4.1 billion dollars for 6 current thermal plants. This will raise depreciation costs.
3.Raises O&M costs by 44%
4.Raises money from property taxes, but it's impossible to figure who pays this because one has to figure out where the power goes.
5.It greatly increases the rate base if the utility is the owner.
6.Decreases available power by 24% because of the parasitic carbon capture unit. This, of course, decreases the volume available for sale – it's a guaranteed volumetric risk. Thus, increases the rate schedule accordingly.
7. Decreases the power available to balance wind and solar. This would have been close to disaster the past couple of weeks. We were cold, no wind showed up, and there was no spare wind or coal available for interchange with neighboring balancing areas.
All this does is use ratepayers to back up a scheme in which money is invested to lower available power, capture CO2, some of which might be sold, and the avoided CO2 will be replaced by China and India anyway. It impacts every category of rate calculations negatively. Some folks are trying to repeal the carbon capture provisions but are being called troglodytes.
Thank you EBB’s! Just what the doctor ordered. A cold slap in the face. It is like a scene in a bar room when the drunk face down on the bar gets a pail of ice water thrown on his or her head. Hell maybe it is 5 drunks having a party, they aren’t paying so drink on! This report is tremendous. Sadly when presented to anyone in the five New England States carrying on this foolishness you will need three BIG Crayola crayons in the primary colors and one sheet of BIG white paper to explain your great post, to the Governors and Legislators “running” their states. You can start with stick figures lying on the ground not looking so good, like dead. Frozen in their homes. As you Bad Boys identified Holyoke (NE ISO) and the RTO had to throw everything but the kitchen sink at it last week, and we were lucky, it wasn’t that cold and it didn’t last long. As the NE States virtue signal their green polices, they have out of the money contracts with Hydro Quebec, which while hydro here in New England is the Boogie Man under their anadromous fish restoration beds, HQ sends high voltage “green’ electricity streaming down the DC lines. Hydro..Quebec..uses Hydro Electric generation! Yep, the same hydro they are ripping out at the rapid rate here in New England. But fear not EBB’s!! Let’s model in the 25% tariff that goes into effect today on all goods from Canada. Hello rate payers, my name is (name your local utility provider) your delivery charges already the highest in the lower 48 are going up!! By how much the bedraggled rate and tax payer asks? Never you mind the legislatures and public service commissions respond, be happy your virtue signaling is green and you ought be proud and righteous with your efforts. But I am cold and in the dark!! Too bad! As Mayor Kevin White of Boston once advised when queried about what to do with all the snow on the sidewalks and streets of Boston one snowy winter…quote “Well we are just gonnah have to wait for summaahh.”
Hey Isaac better practice those stick figures, you will need them when they call you two up begging for help!! Great piece BTW! Details and facts matter. They are going to have to change course. It’s unsustainable as is.
Given the trajectory of energy policy in New England, I suspect that by 2050 energy demand will drop, given the number of voters who die in the dark shivering and followed by a net migration of many of the survivors to warmer climes.
Someone should remake The Day After Tomorrow with a the EBBs sounding the alarm circa 2050 before a winter cold snap with a small team of woodsy science-types rescuing frozen New Englanders from an energy-starved suburban apocalypse.
Thank you EBBs. Yours must be interesting and rewarding work, though I expect it worries you that you are a voice crying in the wilderness. One wonders what's going on at the system operators that makes your endeavours necessary.
One can best understand what government wants by watching what it does. Government wants fewer and more pliant citizens. This cannot be made more obvious than by looking at energy policy.
Spot on as usual. That oil service generation is all pretty ancient, installed shortly after the Mayflower. At some point soon it's not going to answer to call. I stand by my pipe dream of a duel 48 inch gas transmission line running from Canada the length of New England to Jersey.
And yet, several powers in the area insisted that it was absolutely essential to shut down Vermont Yankee some years ago, including RFK jr..
It would be nice if it didn't take more than 20 years for folks to do a little arithmetic.
Thank you for the analysis.
Please send this to governor Healy who presides over the state of Oz
Great analysis here, fellow engineers. I know the Acela Corridor is controlled by a relative few(like the Bolsheviks), but I hope the Real People there will vote out the communists. Maybe they have to be frozen into action.
Thanks Danimal!
Alas, I fear they will never learn that the electrification strategies are doomed to failure
You EBBs are a treasure. Hopefully others are catching on soon. Using actual EIA historical data and projecting future demand is a great analysis method because it eliminates all the bickering over “simulation” using monte carlo and guesses about how weather relates to demand. It also happens to be the method I employed in my public commentary to the Wyoming Senate last year. It is pretty easy for people to understand as long as they can read graphs.
Here is a related item. In a moment of excessive exuberance our Title 37 was modified to demand carbon capture for all current and future coal/gas plants in a bid to make sure fossil fuels could be used in future. Now see what happens.
1.No increase in fossil fuel supplied power is possible because existing plants are what they are.
2.New capital devoted to thermal plants amounts to 4.1 billion dollars for 6 current thermal plants. This will raise depreciation costs.
3.Raises O&M costs by 44%
4.Raises money from property taxes, but it's impossible to figure who pays this because one has to figure out where the power goes.
5.It greatly increases the rate base if the utility is the owner.
6.Decreases available power by 24% because of the parasitic carbon capture unit. This, of course, decreases the volume available for sale – it's a guaranteed volumetric risk. Thus, increases the rate schedule accordingly.
7. Decreases the power available to balance wind and solar. This would have been close to disaster the past couple of weeks. We were cold, no wind showed up, and there was no spare wind or coal available for interchange with neighboring balancing areas.
All this does is use ratepayers to back up a scheme in which money is invested to lower available power, capture CO2, some of which might be sold, and the avoided CO2 will be replaced by China and India anyway. It impacts every category of rate calculations negatively. Some folks are trying to repeal the carbon capture provisions but are being called troglodytes.
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=0c9d380b1a1c137f&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS950US956&hl=en-US&sxsrf=AHTn8zpBliDXACZ40_v8vHW31yb8TbfAxg:1738425524863&q=problems+using+methane+natural+gas+in+cold+weather&spell=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjI14Lf66KLAxWBlu4BHc0IOawQBSgAegQICBAB&biw=414&bih=711&dpr=2
Thank you for another wonderful read!
Thank you EBB’s! Just what the doctor ordered. A cold slap in the face. It is like a scene in a bar room when the drunk face down on the bar gets a pail of ice water thrown on his or her head. Hell maybe it is 5 drunks having a party, they aren’t paying so drink on! This report is tremendous. Sadly when presented to anyone in the five New England States carrying on this foolishness you will need three BIG Crayola crayons in the primary colors and one sheet of BIG white paper to explain your great post, to the Governors and Legislators “running” their states. You can start with stick figures lying on the ground not looking so good, like dead. Frozen in their homes. As you Bad Boys identified Holyoke (NE ISO) and the RTO had to throw everything but the kitchen sink at it last week, and we were lucky, it wasn’t that cold and it didn’t last long. As the NE States virtue signal their green polices, they have out of the money contracts with Hydro Quebec, which while hydro here in New England is the Boogie Man under their anadromous fish restoration beds, HQ sends high voltage “green’ electricity streaming down the DC lines. Hydro..Quebec..uses Hydro Electric generation! Yep, the same hydro they are ripping out at the rapid rate here in New England. But fear not EBB’s!! Let’s model in the 25% tariff that goes into effect today on all goods from Canada. Hello rate payers, my name is (name your local utility provider) your delivery charges already the highest in the lower 48 are going up!! By how much the bedraggled rate and tax payer asks? Never you mind the legislatures and public service commissions respond, be happy your virtue signaling is green and you ought be proud and righteous with your efforts. But I am cold and in the dark!! Too bad! As Mayor Kevin White of Boston once advised when queried about what to do with all the snow on the sidewalks and streets of Boston one snowy winter…quote “Well we are just gonnah have to wait for summaahh.”
Hey Isaac better practice those stick figures, you will need them when they call you two up begging for help!! Great piece BTW! Details and facts matter. They are going to have to change course. It’s unsustainable as is.
Thanks Charles! Love the stick figure image
Given the trajectory of energy policy in New England, I suspect that by 2050 energy demand will drop, given the number of voters who die in the dark shivering and followed by a net migration of many of the survivors to warmer climes.
Someone should remake The Day After Tomorrow with a the EBBs sounding the alarm circa 2050 before a winter cold snap with a small team of woodsy science-types rescuing frozen New Englanders from an energy-starved suburban apocalypse.
Thank you EBBs. Yours must be interesting and rewarding work, though I expect it worries you that you are a voice crying in the wilderness. One wonders what's going on at the system operators that makes your endeavours necessary.
Not to mention Indian point in NY.
Least stupid way possible really does say it all.
One can best understand what government wants by watching what it does. Government wants fewer and more pliant citizens. This cannot be made more obvious than by looking at energy policy.
That’s the best concluding sentence of any article I’ve read in years. Bravo for delivering such a lucid explainer.
When it gets cold, someone will wake up, and what will we do then.
Spot on as usual. That oil service generation is all pretty ancient, installed shortly after the Mayflower. At some point soon it's not going to answer to call. I stand by my pipe dream of a duel 48 inch gas transmission line running from Canada the length of New England to Jersey.