41 Comments
Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling

Thanks again boys. PJM also declared an EEA1 during the maximum generation event to keep in their pocket. They were going to use it to curtail exports if needed. Fortunately PJM pulled under forecast so they had a little more room.

I have noticed that heat = still air = no wind generation. It is a pretty prevalent pattern now.

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Summer heat almost always comes in a high pressure system which means little wind. It also usually means less cloud so better for solar but when the sun sets on an area under a high pressure system it all goes to zero.

Complete waste of money

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author

Thanks for this! Do you have a link to share?

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Let me PM you a little later, yes, but it's not a single source. Ya'll gotta work for it 😆

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This would be helpful information to pass along to California decision makers. Note my above comment affirming the uselessness of wind when there are LARGE high-pressure areas covering most of California in the late summer. CGNP performed a detailed electricity cost analysis in our August 28, 2024 article, "Gas Line Explosions, Summer Heat Storms, and Wildfires, Oh My!" https://greennuke.substack.com/p/gas-line-explosions-summer-heat-storms The supporting files are at https://cgnp.org/supporting-files-for-cgnps-august-20-2024-reply-testimony/

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Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling

Excellent case study EBBs! Here, in very general terms, is how it will play out:

“When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand we apply too late the remedies which then might have effected a cure. There is nothing new in the story. It is as old as the sibylline books. It falls into that long, dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind. Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong. These are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history." Winston Churchill

But don't stop what you're doing!

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EBBs, keep sounding the alarm gong!

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Aug 31Liked by Mitch Rolling, Isaac Orr

Until such time as the policymakers feel the direct impact (i.e. lose power to their own homes and offices), they will continue with their mission, I fear, as they believe they are the righteous ones in every one of these questions.

thanks for the update, alas it appears to be the same story every time with no regulator willing to call an end to the idiocy

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And even then, they will seek to lay the blame elsewhere.

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

Gavin blaming oil company gouging for high gas prices… why don’t they gouge other states?

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Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling

Looks like CAISO is in for a rough ride next week. Temps over 100, all maintenance cancelled. Emergency warnings

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author

Aw man now I have to be emotionally invested in California which is something I try to avoid at all costs

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

Sorry😁

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Thanks Lee. I'm going to share this. I'm not totally sure what hitting "share" means, but no time like the present to try!

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

Hi Meredith. I’ll keep you apprised if it gets really good. I don’t know what “share” does either!

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author

I’d like to be in the loop too please. Thanks, Lee!

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Ok. 🤞 hoping for some excitement

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Sep 1·edited Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

On August 30, 2024, CAISO declared "Restricted Maintenance Operations" on the afternoons of September 4,, 5, and 6. Such grid warnings tend to recur around this time of year now. for reasons including the unreliability of California's 8,352 MW of wind and the daily unreliability of the state's 19,628 MW of solar. Prior to large amounts of solar and wind being installed on the California grid in response to aggressive lobbying during the past two decades, these unreliability events did NOT occur.

Watch for updates here: https://www.caiso.com/emergency-notifications

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

All the solar just trips 0ver itself and gets curtailed. Until they install millions of MWH of batteries much of the solar is just wasted due to grid congestion. If you apply to connect a solar project today it will be mid 2030’s before it is connected, best case. I believe Ca was 33% renewables in 2023. 20 years and hundreds of $billions, highest rates in the country and a measly 33%. A colossal failure by any measure.

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The real problem is that the California power scheme is a California power dream. It will not work unless California's political leaders pay attention to the 2011 advice of the eminent scientists and engineers serving the California Council on Science and Technology and emulate the examples of France and Sweden. Bulind 30 new nuclear power plants. California is wasting time and money with inherently intermittent solar and wind. Batteries are not a cost-effective solution either.

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Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling

Who couldn’t love John Prine? He’s as American as Coal fired boilers🇺🇸 another great article with facts supporting the lunacy of “renewables”

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

Daddy won’t you take me back to Muelenberg county

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another great article with facts “describing” the lunacy of “renewables”

Defining

Screaming out

But not supporting

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Then there is ERCOT! The biggest renewable energy disaster to the grid, since it decided to just gorge itself on the billions from the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment Act, along with the chunks of the millions in purchase agreements from the wind developers. Meanwhile, the Texas government has received $10 billion from the voters in November 2023 to create the Texas Energy Fund for upgrades and construction of natural gas power plants. After Uri, the media, environmental groups and politicians who live off the renewable energy scam, time passed and the public is now wise to the unreliable energy that is creating instability to the grid. They all cover up the disaster of Texas' massive development of wind with 16,000+ wind turbines delivering energy at the whim of Mother Nature. The day before Uri hit, wind production was at 52%, and dropped to 2% the day the storm arrived. Yet, the Houston Chronicle, Texas Tribune, Austin Statesman, etc., all screamed "frozen natural gas pipelines"! As if the major drop in wind had nothing to do with the blackouts.

But, the apostles of wind are getting push back from the people in Texas, since Uri was a lesson we never want to repeat. But, it is a battle that is still raging as a cohort of environmental groups filed a lawsuit in 2020 against the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Of course, the billion dollar enviro industry is after the offshore oil and gas companies in the Gulf of Mexico for protections it receives from the Endangered Species Act liability. They site in particular the failure to ensure that mitigation measures would be sufficient to avoid jeopardy to the Rice Whale. So, after 4 years, a ruling came down and the Court agreed that the Biological Opinion which includes reasonable and prudent alternatives to avoid or mitigate adverse effects to the endangered species will be vacated on December 20, 2024. This throws the offshore oil and gas industry into chaos since it eliminates the section regarding the ESA under the oil and gas leases already issued. This impacts wells that are already producing in offshore waters which produces 15% of our oil and natural gas and permits will not be issued for any additional work needed on the platforms.

Of course, under the Biden-Harris Administration, Gina Raimondo at Commerce said that the NMFS ESA review was in progress but it wouldn't be issued until late winter or early spring 2025 at the earliest. So, the industry will be at risk without ESA mitigation measures and we can be sure the enviros are waiting to pounce since its a dream that has finally been delivered.

Meanwhile, our reliable energy will decline in the Gulf, but, no problem, that wind farm that was, of course, approved by our stellar grid operator, ERCOT, that ignored the fact it was a Chinese billionaire building next to a military base, was finally kicked out of Texas but, no worries, it was bought by a company from Spain. So a new wind farm will begin construction of 48 turbines 700' tall in Val Verde County which is home to one of the most beautiful recreational areas in the state where the Devil River State Natural Area is home to crystal-clear waters and a famed stretch of rapids and has starry nights of exceptional quality. So, here in Texas, we're stuck with a grid operator who is not from Texas, of course, and always lies to the legislature, who for the most part, get a piece of the action also, and as we all get pulled into the Green New Deal, kicking and screaming, it doesn't look like there's any going back.

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Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling

"below its accredited capacity of an 18.1 percent capacity factor during the duration of the two events,.."

Why is there something called an "accredited capacity" when the assets are weather dependent? It makes no sense, but even the utility executives believe in it.

Some years ago I wrote an article for WUWT showing that summer seasonal capacity factors decline rapidly as one goes east of the Great Plains. However, the actual patterns year to year are complex. Usually late summer is when wind is at its worst. Yet, occasionally October is a terrible month out here in the Rocky Mountains -- a month in which we would drain those storage batteries we don't yet have. We get periods in December and January totally without wind. Yet, utilities are building more wind "farms" and whistling happy tunes.

The day is not far off when the wind stops blowing during a cold spell in my neck of the woods, and the Genaracs that people have installed bring the natural gas supply to its knees.

Keep the boot on their necks, Bad Boys.

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“The day is not far off when the wind stops blowing during a cold spell in my neck of the woods, and the Genaracs that people have installed bring the natural gas supply to its knees.”

On Jan 13 that almost happened here in AB. -42C and the gas network almost dropped to where pilot lights start going out.

So having a generac wouldn’t matter as there was almost no gas.

Even if there was wind they have to lock down the bird choppers so they don’t shatter in the cold.

An actual, real, existential event brought us by renewables energy policy.

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Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr

Perhaps replacing accredited with probable would be more accurate.

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Aug 31Liked by Mitch Rolling, Isaac Orr

Great work, gents.

"This suggests that the strategy laid out by many utility, state, and federal proposals to rely on imports from..."

Why, since the 90s, do we have to rely on imports when we hold at least 500 years of fossils? Government/corporate power and money...

Trump unleashed our fossil fuel energy development and they literally kicked him out of office as deflation was happening. Why? Because all of our institutions want control of their monopoly which includes fossils. Ask yourself why Texas is selling their(our) LNG to Europe right now for 7X the price they are selling here. How else can they do this without controlling supply.

See @MikeBenzCyber

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Sep 1·edited Sep 2Liked by Isaac Orr

A recent example of a MISO coal plant shutting down. Consumers is excited to be done with coal.

https://www.mlive.com/environment/2024/08/consumers-energy-offers-a-look-inside-its-last-coal-fired-power-plant-before-it-closes.html

But hey, it is a once in a lifetime chance to turn them into parks and solar farms, so we should be excited.

https://www.thecooldown.com/green-tech/power-plants-to-parklands-initiative-coal-solar/

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Aug 31Liked by Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling

Great article, thanks!

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Problem is that the various legislative bodies, both state and federal are populated with idiot children, having been warned not to run into the busy street after a bouncing ball, they do so regardless, read that mandate more and more unsustainable and unreliable generation whilst demanding removal of the one thing between them and a fast moving tractor trailer which are fossil generators , which in the case of weather events are pushed to the limits. Sort of like a tractor trailer with poor brake linings, sure the truck will stop, but not until it rolls over the kid and the ball in the street. At some point MISO will not have enough collateral support and it will get ugly. Same with SPP, ERCOT anyone? NYISO and NEISO currently are sparred, no one lives and works there anymore, but wait until the data storage and AI projects get going, AI or home heating, cloud storage or AC in a July heat wave. “Half a league, half a league, half a league onward, all in the valley of death rode the six hundred.” More wind and solar they cried, especially the big wind turbines in the sea, we want to be just like the EU! They cry, a lobster in every pot, the land of the Cod is now sod. It is too bad we lost lost John Prine, one suspects in a few well sung verses he would have it right and it would be very entertaining. Great reporting EBB! Keep up the great reporting!

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I agree in principle, but the legislatures are not populated by idiot children, they are elected by idiot children. Are you familiar with Lindzen's paper (2023) “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” In that paper, he provides a totally non-controversial description of the climate system; two turbulent fluids, differentially heated, etc. It's a brilliant definition.

I quoted that definition to an avowed climatist, and was called a crank, and that it had so many problems it wasn't worth discussing.

I'm quite certain the global IQ of these folks is about the same as the global mean temperature.

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In another life I testified in open sessions before five of the six New England legislatures. Rhode Island being the odd state out. Whilst you are correct that idiot children elect their representatives, I would opine from personal interactions and observations that the representatives and senators are by in large as dumb and worse lacking any intellectual curiosity whatsoever., and almost making the idiot children who elected them look smart. There are always a few very bright individuals, but as it was when you tried to have a rational exchange with a climate wing nut, discussions basically came to the same conclusion. Carry on folks nothing to see here and be happy in your work, the few thoughtful hard working legislators just try to pinch the edges and get something done. For that persistence alone they deserve great credit. Sooner or later MISO is going to run out of juice, and won’t be able to get grid stability support and it will come crashing down hard. Then if it is bad enough and lasts long enough the general public will take notice. Until then it’s 11 months of winter and 1 month of damn tough sledding.

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Thank you Isaac and Mitch for this relevant information. As the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has documented for years, solar and wind can be counted on to NOT be available when the system needs reliable power. A significant example was the EEA2 on the evening of July 9, 2021 and the EEA3 on the evening of September 6, 2022. OTOH, Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant was helping to provide important grid reliability during these grid challenges. Learn more about these events with our new article, "Gas Line Explosions, Summer Heat Storms, and Wildfires, Oh My!" at https://greennuke.substack.com/p/gas-line-explosions-summer-heat-storms

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

Gene, what do you think will happen with Diablo? Do they dare shut it down?

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Diablo Canyon's future is cloudy. The problem is Berkshire Hathaway is aggressively lobbying a federal agency WIEB-CREPC to form a West-wide ISO. or RTO

https://www.westernenergyboard.org/wwgpi/ for all states except California. Then, the plan is to "circle back" and force California to join. This will likely imperil both Columbia Nuclear Generating Station and Palo Verde Nuclear Power Station. But the big target is Diablo Canyon. All three plants could be replaced with Wyoming coal-fired power! The GreenNUKE substack and CGNP's federal and state filings provide details. All of the "big name" environmental organizations are either silent or are cheerleaders. Shades of Germany in replacing emission-free nuclear power plants with coal-fired power plants producing toxic air and water pollution!

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Sep 1Liked by Isaac Orr

I think they are already closing in on Diablo. Their NRC license looks like trouble, the legislature is threatening the finances, and PG&E is once again in deep financial trouble.

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author

I’m cheering for California like I’m cheering Germany. Off the cliff!

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CGNP and a few other organizations continue to fight these harmful state and federal proposed policies. The alternative is that California will have the worst of both dimensions. :Emission-laden power sector emissions and even-higher electricity prices. Anyone recall ENRON?

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“ MISO declared Max Gen Warnings in its North and Central regions for August 26th and 27th from 1 pm to 8 pm on both days due to forced generation outages, above-normal temperatures, and limited transfer capabilities.”

Even smart people get caught up using the terminology of the climate/insane, I refer to “above-normal temperatures”.

There is no such thing as normal, there is average, minimum and maximum. The insane want to define anything above the average as abnormal (OMG CLIMATE EMERGENCY!!) when is being higher than the average is completely normal.

Even new records are completely normal.

Don’t feed the beast, it’s stupid enough already.

Otherwise, good piece. Renewables blow, and not in a good way.

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Not Texas.

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