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This is another example of how consistently under analyzed the green energy policies are at their foundation. There are so many assumptions built in, based on belief in renewables being the cheapest and reliable, and the primary focus of reducing GHG emissions at all costs, that we end up with garbage policy. The United States is quickly approaching European Union lunacy on its energy and climate policies. I wish we could just fast forward to the point where all of these policies so obviously fail in real life and then we can just move on. Preferably without having to endure the pain that will come until we reach that point.

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I wish we could skip that part too, but as Doomberg famously quipped “More Pain Required.”

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We are energy dominant a few years after Trump bankrupted the fracking industry with lockdowns…too bad we can’t produce energy from the tears of Republicans who whine all the time. ;)

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Isaac/Mitch - Welcome to Substack. Big fans of your work.

"This “rule by regulator” is disheartening at best and depressing at worst."

(we wish it was just depressing. it's destructive, and wasteful.)

Great post!

-environMENTAL

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Nov 16, 2023Liked by Isaac Orr

At least the US has some nuclear plants. In Australia the same idiocy is being pursued but we have not one nuclear power plant. Granted our winters aren’t a patch on yours but the principle is the same.

Moronic policies, inept, blind and populist governments, unreliable technology. We have so many ‘experts’ in the system almost none of whom went to engineering school.

We will have a fossil free future I am sure but we won’t get there by turning the lights out before we have even developed the technology, let alone scale it and commercialise it at a competitive cost.

Non western countries will not only be pissing themselves laughing, they will catch and accelerate past is due to our rank stupidity.

I guess the lack of privation in the west to allow us to get caught up with sitting on roads and blocking traffic or throwing soup on paintings will return. And the privation that is created will stop the lunatics who are currently running the asylum and the adults will be allowed back to run things.

The pain of this return to logic and reason though will be horrendous.

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Dec 26, 2023Liked by Isaac Orr

I just found and subscribed to your blog here. I have to wonder whether the obsession with very rapid decarbonization of the grid while electrifying everything is really just lack of awareness of the inevitable consequences. It may be that the EPA is fully aware of the consequences but is engaging in a conscious tradeoff: more rapid CO2 reduction and less reliability. On that reasoning blackouts are a feature of the grid, not a bug.

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All we can do is let them know their ideas are bad and then let them make their decisions accordingly. Elections have consequences

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After suffering through six months of California PG&E multi-day PSPS power shut offs and almost weekly eight hour outages due to their EPSS program, I am well familiar with power outages. My new home has a whole house standby generator, until gasleaks.org, RMI, BDC, or some other organization takes away my natural gas so I don't have any fuel.

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Mitch and I coauthored a report on the cost of getting rid of natural gas for electricity generation and home heating you might find interesting. The main takeaway is its unreliable and hugely expensive. https://www.americanexperiment.org/reports/colorados-energy-future-the-high-cost-of-100-percent-electric-home-heating

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I will take a look, thank you. I am a retired NERC Certified System Operator, last ten years I was the Operations chief. Intimately familiar with what leads to rolling blackouts and how those decisions are made.

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It’s great to have someone with your experience as one of our readers. Hopefully we can contact you as a resource in the future. Happy thanksgiving!

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Certainly

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Nov 17, 2023Liked by Isaac Orr

I haven’t read the full study but I assume that $246B number is at the low need of the range. Actually building out that much new capacity, especially when similar buildouts would be happening across the country, will inevitably lead to massive resource and labor shortages and various areas. The end cost after inflation could easily be double or triple that.

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Thanks for reading! That’s correct. The $246 billion is the cost of building the additional capacity to make EPAs modeled grid “reliable,” not the entire cost of the capacity buildout. Now multiply that by several other RTOs.

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In truth, most of these rule makers think we would be better off with half the world’s population dead. So they have no qualms about like of energy, including fertilizers.

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