Well done again EBBs. Incredible as it is, it's evident that the new UK Labour government (along with sizeable minority Liberal Democrat party), regards Germany as a role model, apart from the degree of insanity over nuclear power (though for new stuff it's "too expensive and takes too long to build"). There's no need to read fiction here, we're living it.
As has been pointed regularly here by the EBB’s MISO will share a similar fate, and when the rate and tax payers in MISO suffer rolling blackouts in the dead of say a Minnesota winter, they may ask the public officials who gleefully led them down the road to self destruction what model they used. No doubt the imbeciles will say “We looked at Germany!” Let the Balkanization of generation, transmission and distribution continue, we have a great model, Western Europe! What a great idea. Offshore wind south Nantucket Island anyone??!!
Beyond absurd. Buy OKLO stock. When (or 'if') politicians with uncommon sense are re-empowered, smaller regional nuclear power will hopefully be added to the generating grid.
You guys do such great work; between you, Dave Walsh, and Wattsupwiththat... Outstanding work.
I heard a guy(a real scientist) make some sense the other day: "We are carbon negative. Each tree in the world consumes 22 kg of CO2."... and he went on with the numbers of what humans produce versus how many trees. Made sense to this engineer.
The whole sham is just a transfer of wealth. I live 40 miles NE of the TC and our bountiful farm fields are being covered with toxic panels and there is NO escrow provided to the farmers. Complete government travesty.
because agriculture is superunknown to progressive politicians. those are the kids who thought milk was made in the back of the supermarket, now grownup and doubling down on stoopid, they'll cover the Midwest with wind/solar to create rolling blackouts they can blame on whatever political opposition/undesirable elements, plus food will get more scarce n pricey with prime arable land being squandered (lived in MN in the 90s, glad I moved)
This is happening in the Gulf Coast region. The amount of interest from European companies to set up shop where there is cheap, plentiful energy has been big. But the Biden/Harris admin has been putting all the incentives on the “green” side so things like carbon capture and hydrogen have most of the interest right now. Maybe when those incentives die off we can move on to things that actually make money.
Nice article. A couple of points. Interesting that they are shifting the costs to taxpayers rather than ratepayers. I expect California and New York will have to do that at some point, too. Meanwhile they will yell at the utilities for “gouging”.
The first 30-40 percent renewables is the cheap and easy part. Getting beyond 50% is difficult and costly. Maybe impossible.
If you want to read the “Bible” of Green Revolution, read “Speed & Scale” by John Doerr. Doerr is a partner in Kleiner-Perkins Venture Capital. The book was published in 2021 at the peak of money printing and techno-optimism about pure EV cars, solar, wind, etc (and before Russia invaded Ukraine.. A few choice quotes. “In 2019, 42 percent of Germany’s electricity was generated by renewables.” (Unfortunately, the rest of the grid was powered with Russian gas). “We will need many more breakthroughs from battery makers to meet the world’s demand for cheaper, environmentally friendly storage. There is room for many winners in this race”.🤣🤣 Look at current lithium prices!. The main takeaway is had from the book is that there were ZERO engineering equations or facts about the details of really scaling up all the mining and subsequent refining/processing steps needed to make all of this. It is basically a book long version of a venture capital pitch deck.
Ahhh, 2021. When it was easy to be a prog. Before alt media had grown in response to the propaganda/censorship complex...you could cheer on 🧠-challenged President and VP Cackler. Go downtown in Portland and ryot whenever u felt like it. Vote for cryo-preserved prog politicians and poof! u were brave online. No need to howl like a toddler at the Inauguration in your über-sensible lime green Patagonia cos no 🍊man. No EBBs pointing out results of well-intentioned but still richard-head energy policies..."oh Jeeves, make sure you finish those battery tech breakthroughs by Friday, thanks ever so much" FFS
According to electricity maps, CO2 emissions for Germany in 2023 were 400g CO2/KWh. In 2020 they were 386g CO2/KWh. France has been averaging around 60g CO2/KWh for every year they have data. In 2023 retail electricity in France was about 25 cents/KWh vs Germany’s 40 cents/KWh.
Simulations show that wind/solar prices will rise exponentially as percentages approach 100%, so the prices Germany is paying today are a fraction of what they will be paying if they continue down this path. But the electricity grid is only about 30% of emissions, wait until they try to make process heat, steel, concrete, fertilizer, and jet fuel with electricity from wind and solar. Not only is there not enough money, but there is also not enough land.
Is this stupidity or insanity? I think most of the blame should go to the dishonesty of academia. It is their job to educate the world on the best solutions. Every college professor on the planet should have yelled at them to build more nuclear instead of shutting down their nuclear. Now it is left to others to step in and warn the world.
Yes, yes, yes, scientists are sellouts, they will write anything for grants. This is one of the most important reasons for the "development" of green energy. But currently the greatest wrongdoing is committed by scientists announcing the imminent success of hydrogen.
Yes, hydrogen is the next dead end road. I’ve simulated this and found that hydrogen reduces solar/wind overbuilding and batteries, but then introduces new costs: hydrogen storage, PEM electrolyzers, and fuel cells. The final cost is astronomical even if costs for the enabling technologies come way down.
Nuclear is the ideal CO2 free solution, but when you get your PHD apparently nuclear gets ruled out in favor of every ultra complicated alternative. They probably are enjoying themselves working on that stuff because nuclear is just too simple.
yeah, AfD are laughing their 🐴 off. The GenZ voters especially in the former DDR area are turning to the political right over the migrant pact and the results of green party policies. but the greens don't believe in "what goes up must come down" they're more of a "it goes up if we say it does" group of people
The discussion with the green demo-liberals is at the level of a cabaret. We say: - photovoltaics do not supply electricity to heat pumps in winter because the nights in winter are 15-16 hours long, and they respond - you are racists, nationalists, populists and you do not respect gay rights.
that's what progs do...gaslight ya, if that doesn't work, they hurl the -ist words, and if you're unfazed by that, they screech and spray biodegradable orange paint on objects values by western societies. but if we had inferior thinking ability as they do, we would likewise be doing these things
In the article "Inflation Must End in a Slump," written in 1951, the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) noted that all periods of government induced credit expansion must end in an economic crisis.
Woke socialist voters and politicians destroyed the most efficient industrial economy in Europe. I am afraid that the US is on the same course. Energy is life.
Surprised to see the Germans switch their subsidy payments. If there is one thing the middle class hates more than higher energy costs it’s higher taxes used to pay off big business.
Every statement ever made by any green energy advocate has been a lie.
It’s all lies, top to bottom, start to finish.
“Too cheap to meter” is one you didn’t recount.
As they can no longer pretend to not be lying they have switched to gaslighting, saying of course it was always going to be more expensive, no one ever said differently.
You're exactly right about Strauss' remark, and it has haunted nuclear advocates for decades, but my A #1 quote that didn't age well is "America is the Saudi Arabia of coal," attributed to Jimmy Carter but echoed by Hillary, Walter Mondale, and even Barack Obungler.
Have you ever wondered or tried to calculate the tons of CO2 we've emitted since Carter, Ralph Nader and Jane Fonda essentially shutdown nuclear power in 1979? I've done some of that math, learning that we've added 107 GW of coal plants since then. Next time you argue with a greenie about nuclear power, remind them of that historic tidbit.
I am trying to understand the last 2 images. As you said, I understand they are not apples to apples. But until its removal, the green energy surcharge appears to be largely flat. It does appear to account for the majority of the difference between the US price and the German price in the last image in that period, but it doesn't seem to be driving a growth in prices/Kwh. Any growth seems to be stemming from procurement network fees, particularly the large spike, and I would interpret that as being a result of nuclear shutdowns and then obviously NG tightening supply.
Certainly the Nuclear phase out was a mistake, and German Energy Policy is riddled with such mistakes. And in the residential graph, you do see the Green charge growing to 2013 (although not always the main driver). I suppose am not sure what the core of the argument is here?
I believe the intention is to show how renewables are creating high prices. But regardless of if Germany had build coal as the replacement, the capacity installations the Green surcharge recovers would still have been required at a meaningful level given Germany's decision to replace half of a perfectly good generating system, no? I can see how this appears that renewables are driving the higher bill, but the fact both solar and onshore wind at least doubled over a period the surcharge remained ~constant is hard for me to interpret as a coupling of capacity and price growth. Or, maybe the opposite, I see the issue exactly as a new capacity issue construction cost, but not one strongly related to the technology of that capacity.
As further confirmation of the concerns raised in "Energiewende more like Energieweimar," the political advocacy of German Greens is partially funded via German taxpayers through the Heinrich Böll Foundation (hbs.) Here's an anti-nuclear power example post: "Renewables replace nuclear and lower emissions simultaneously," Craig Morris, 20 Nov 2019, Energy Transition - The Global Energiewende blog. https://energytransition.org/2019/11/renewables-replace-nuclear-and-lower-emissions-simultaneously/
Well done again EBBs. Incredible as it is, it's evident that the new UK Labour government (along with sizeable minority Liberal Democrat party), regards Germany as a role model, apart from the degree of insanity over nuclear power (though for new stuff it's "too expensive and takes too long to build"). There's no need to read fiction here, we're living it.
As has been pointed regularly here by the EBB’s MISO will share a similar fate, and when the rate and tax payers in MISO suffer rolling blackouts in the dead of say a Minnesota winter, they may ask the public officials who gleefully led them down the road to self destruction what model they used. No doubt the imbeciles will say “We looked at Germany!” Let the Balkanization of generation, transmission and distribution continue, we have a great model, Western Europe! What a great idea. Offshore wind south Nantucket Island anyone??!!
Beyond absurd. Buy OKLO stock. When (or 'if') politicians with uncommon sense are re-empowered, smaller regional nuclear power will hopefully be added to the generating grid.
You guys do such great work; between you, Dave Walsh, and Wattsupwiththat... Outstanding work.
I heard a guy(a real scientist) make some sense the other day: "We are carbon negative. Each tree in the world consumes 22 kg of CO2."... and he went on with the numbers of what humans produce versus how many trees. Made sense to this engineer.
The whole sham is just a transfer of wealth. I live 40 miles NE of the TC and our bountiful farm fields are being covered with toxic panels and there is NO escrow provided to the farmers. Complete government travesty.
because agriculture is superunknown to progressive politicians. those are the kids who thought milk was made in the back of the supermarket, now grownup and doubling down on stoopid, they'll cover the Midwest with wind/solar to create rolling blackouts they can blame on whatever political opposition/undesirable elements, plus food will get more scarce n pricey with prime arable land being squandered (lived in MN in the 90s, glad I moved)
If it wasn't for all the nutjobs in the US, we could be rubbing our hands around the thought of all the industrial facilities we'd be picking up....
From what I understand, the Germans are more likely to shift displaced industrial production to China. Unreal.
Already happening, companies with over 100 years of history like BASF shifting ops
shifting to China ... digging an even deeper hole.
This is happening in the Gulf Coast region. The amount of interest from European companies to set up shop where there is cheap, plentiful energy has been big. But the Biden/Harris admin has been putting all the incentives on the “green” side so things like carbon capture and hydrogen have most of the interest right now. Maybe when those incentives die off we can move on to things that actually make money.
Nice article. A couple of points. Interesting that they are shifting the costs to taxpayers rather than ratepayers. I expect California and New York will have to do that at some point, too. Meanwhile they will yell at the utilities for “gouging”.
The first 30-40 percent renewables is the cheap and easy part. Getting beyond 50% is difficult and costly. Maybe impossible.
If you want to read the “Bible” of Green Revolution, read “Speed & Scale” by John Doerr. Doerr is a partner in Kleiner-Perkins Venture Capital. The book was published in 2021 at the peak of money printing and techno-optimism about pure EV cars, solar, wind, etc (and before Russia invaded Ukraine.. A few choice quotes. “In 2019, 42 percent of Germany’s electricity was generated by renewables.” (Unfortunately, the rest of the grid was powered with Russian gas). “We will need many more breakthroughs from battery makers to meet the world’s demand for cheaper, environmentally friendly storage. There is room for many winners in this race”.🤣🤣 Look at current lithium prices!. The main takeaway is had from the book is that there were ZERO engineering equations or facts about the details of really scaling up all the mining and subsequent refining/processing steps needed to make all of this. It is basically a book long version of a venture capital pitch deck.
Ahhh, 2021. When it was easy to be a prog. Before alt media had grown in response to the propaganda/censorship complex...you could cheer on 🧠-challenged President and VP Cackler. Go downtown in Portland and ryot whenever u felt like it. Vote for cryo-preserved prog politicians and poof! u were brave online. No need to howl like a toddler at the Inauguration in your über-sensible lime green Patagonia cos no 🍊man. No EBBs pointing out results of well-intentioned but still richard-head energy policies..."oh Jeeves, make sure you finish those battery tech breakthroughs by Friday, thanks ever so much" FFS
According to electricity maps, CO2 emissions for Germany in 2023 were 400g CO2/KWh. In 2020 they were 386g CO2/KWh. France has been averaging around 60g CO2/KWh for every year they have data. In 2023 retail electricity in France was about 25 cents/KWh vs Germany’s 40 cents/KWh.
Simulations show that wind/solar prices will rise exponentially as percentages approach 100%, so the prices Germany is paying today are a fraction of what they will be paying if they continue down this path. But the electricity grid is only about 30% of emissions, wait until they try to make process heat, steel, concrete, fertilizer, and jet fuel with electricity from wind and solar. Not only is there not enough money, but there is also not enough land.
Is this stupidity or insanity? I think most of the blame should go to the dishonesty of academia. It is their job to educate the world on the best solutions. Every college professor on the planet should have yelled at them to build more nuclear instead of shutting down their nuclear. Now it is left to others to step in and warn the world.
All green advocates are liars
You cannot be a green advocate if you aren’t a liar
Remember Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
The earth has its boundaries, but human stupidity has NO limits.
your comment is so on-point, thank you
Yes, yes, yes, scientists are sellouts, they will write anything for grants. This is one of the most important reasons for the "development" of green energy. But currently the greatest wrongdoing is committed by scientists announcing the imminent success of hydrogen.
Yes, hydrogen is the next dead end road. I’ve simulated this and found that hydrogen reduces solar/wind overbuilding and batteries, but then introduces new costs: hydrogen storage, PEM electrolyzers, and fuel cells. The final cost is astronomical even if costs for the enabling technologies come way down.
Nuclear is the ideal CO2 free solution, but when you get your PHD apparently nuclear gets ruled out in favor of every ultra complicated alternative. They probably are enjoying themselves working on that stuff because nuclear is just too simple.
The Germans are learning the hard way that believing in fantasies is not a strategy.
yeah, AfD are laughing their 🐴 off. The GenZ voters especially in the former DDR area are turning to the political right over the migrant pact and the results of green party policies. but the greens don't believe in "what goes up must come down" they're more of a "it goes up if we say it does" group of people
The discussion with the green demo-liberals is at the level of a cabaret. We say: - photovoltaics do not supply electricity to heat pumps in winter because the nights in winter are 15-16 hours long, and they respond - you are racists, nationalists, populists and you do not respect gay rights.
that's what progs do...gaslight ya, if that doesn't work, they hurl the -ist words, and if you're unfazed by that, they screech and spray biodegradable orange paint on objects values by western societies. but if we had inferior thinking ability as they do, we would likewise be doing these things
In the article "Inflation Must End in a Slump," written in 1951, the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) noted that all periods of government induced credit expansion must end in an economic crisis.
https://oll.libertyfund.org/quotes/ludwig-von-mises-shows-the-inevitability-of-economic-slumps-after-a-period-of-credit-expansion-1951
Woke socialist voters and politicians destroyed the most efficient industrial economy in Europe. I am afraid that the US is on the same course. Energy is life.
Surprised to see the Germans switch their subsidy payments. If there is one thing the middle class hates more than higher energy costs it’s higher taxes used to pay off big business.
Every statement ever made by any green energy advocate has been a lie.
It’s all lies, top to bottom, start to finish.
“Too cheap to meter” is one you didn’t recount.
As they can no longer pretend to not be lying they have switched to gaslighting, saying of course it was always going to be more expensive, no one ever said differently.
You're exactly right about Strauss' remark, and it has haunted nuclear advocates for decades, but my A #1 quote that didn't age well is "America is the Saudi Arabia of coal," attributed to Jimmy Carter but echoed by Hillary, Walter Mondale, and even Barack Obungler.
Have you ever wondered or tried to calculate the tons of CO2 we've emitted since Carter, Ralph Nader and Jane Fonda essentially shutdown nuclear power in 1979? I've done some of that math, learning that we've added 107 GW of coal plants since then. Next time you argue with a greenie about nuclear power, remind them of that historic tidbit.
Excellent article 👌.
Dieter's Disaster is very 🎯 Target Rich.
Let's not forget the full speed ahead self-demolition of the German car industry.
All aided and abetted by the Evil Genius Putin:
https://tucoschild.substack.com/p/reprise-putins-kgb-masterstroke-fracking
I am trying to understand the last 2 images. As you said, I understand they are not apples to apples. But until its removal, the green energy surcharge appears to be largely flat. It does appear to account for the majority of the difference between the US price and the German price in the last image in that period, but it doesn't seem to be driving a growth in prices/Kwh. Any growth seems to be stemming from procurement network fees, particularly the large spike, and I would interpret that as being a result of nuclear shutdowns and then obviously NG tightening supply.
Certainly the Nuclear phase out was a mistake, and German Energy Policy is riddled with such mistakes. And in the residential graph, you do see the Green charge growing to 2013 (although not always the main driver). I suppose am not sure what the core of the argument is here?
I believe the intention is to show how renewables are creating high prices. But regardless of if Germany had build coal as the replacement, the capacity installations the Green surcharge recovers would still have been required at a meaningful level given Germany's decision to replace half of a perfectly good generating system, no? I can see how this appears that renewables are driving the higher bill, but the fact both solar and onshore wind at least doubled over a period the surcharge remained ~constant is hard for me to interpret as a coupling of capacity and price growth. Or, maybe the opposite, I see the issue exactly as a new capacity issue construction cost, but not one strongly related to the technology of that capacity.
As further confirmation of the concerns raised in "Energiewende more like Energieweimar," the political advocacy of German Greens is partially funded via German taxpayers through the Heinrich Böll Foundation (hbs.) Here's an anti-nuclear power example post: "Renewables replace nuclear and lower emissions simultaneously," Craig Morris, 20 Nov 2019, Energy Transition - The Global Energiewende blog. https://energytransition.org/2019/11/renewables-replace-nuclear-and-lower-emissions-simultaneously/
An Initiative of the Heinrich Böll Foundation. © 2012 - 2024. The Heinrich Böll Foundation receives German taxpayer funded subsidies. The hbs has elegant offices in Berlin. The hbs also has offices in the West Bank of Palestine, Moscow, Russia, Beijing, China, and Washington, DC. Many of the policies of the hbs are socialist policies.
__________
"Renewables replace nuclear and lower emissions simultaneously," Craig Morris, 20 Nov 2019, Energy Transition - The Global Energiewende blog. https://energytransition.org/2019/11/renewables-replace-nuclear-and-lower-emissions-simultaneously/
An Initiative of the Heinrich Böll Foundation. © 2012 - 2024. The Heinrich Böll Foundation (hbs) receives German taxpayer funded subsidies. The hbs has offices in the West Bank of Palestine, Moscow, Russia, and Washington, DC. Many of the policies of the hbs are socialist policies.
To get reliable wind and solar, you need 5-10X peak demand.