as Doomberg pointed out this morning, apparently Ohio has figured some things out, but I fear that we will need to see major blackouts before enough people recognize that this has been a problem in the making that was entirely political, and such that politicians take the blame
Thank you EBBs and happy (nearly) new year! It's long been my assumption that if you're going to take a chainsaw to a tree branch you're sitting on, it's wise to sit on the trunk side of the cut. But then what do I know?
If power is not 100% available when demanded, it is not capacity, and should not be included in the calculation of capacity. Wind and solar do not fit the definition, but coal, gas and nuclear do.
Absolutely! The ability to produce at capacity and the ability to do it at any given moment are two different things, and not even capacity value ratings account for this fully (even though it tries).
The look at ERCOT is interesting. Their market is the holy grail many point to when they attack the PJM capacity market and call it broken. In reality what you are showing is ERCOT is the Walmart of RTOs. Anything works as long as it's cheap, breaks as soon as soon as you put pressure on it.
The great equalizer is always massive winter storms. It's been a while since we had a Uri, or an Elliott, we are due. When power systems collapse people die, it's that simple. Will casualties cause change, I am not sure anymore.
I have the same feeling - it certainly didnt after Uri, at least not in the way it should've. People spin these events any way they want and simply keep rolling down the same path.
The last time the Texas grid murdered hundreds of people there were articles published within hours blaming it on gas generation. Almost as if the articles were already written and just waiting for the event...
It had far more to do with Texas converting their gas compressor stations to electric compressors because they were cheaper to run, they could have kept their combustion compressors as backup, but they sold them instead. But that dirty little secret got buried pretty deep.
The article is right on target to help address the very generic, misleading discussions of renewable capacity additions in the public forum.
There are multiple factors that will increase the risk to the grid over the next few years. The pipeline of already contracted for and in-construction renewable resources will continue to come online for several years further reducing the Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) of each new resource. While the industry has very prudently pivoted back to dispatchable gas resources, most of these are a few years away (our new greenfield gas is not anticipated until 2031). Finally, there’s increasing risk in the existing fossil fleet given the age of some of the resources. Some research I did a few years ago identified the steadily increasing capacity-weighted age of our gas fleet. Not only is the average age increasing due to the lack of new resources, but the increase in load is causing our oldest peaking resources to be dispatched at a capacity factor that is a multiple of their historical dispatch (~5X for out peaking CT’s). The overall dispatch risk of dispatching a peaking combustion turbine at a 5% capacity factor is meaningfully higher than if it were dispatched at 1%.
The way I continue to think about the U.S. grid is very similar to a large ship (say a very large crude carrier). The trajectory of the ship is crucial given the time is takes to either turn and or stop. The U.S. grid’s currently trajectory, shaped by the ill-advised renewable heavy policies over the last 10 to 15 years, is one of rapidly increasing cost and reduced reliability. While policies are prudently starting to pivot back to a balanced generation portfolio, it will be another 3 to 5 years before grid cost and reliability risks peak.
Thank you for your analysis, Mitch and Isaac. The lack of firm capacity is beginning to bite many parts of the U.S. as a consequence of the harmful favoring of intermittent solar and intermittent wind. But the situation is worse than you describe.... As CGNP noted with respect to the deadly April 28, 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout, there were two perfectly good nuclear power reactors standing idle that morning as a consequence of policy choices that favored unreliable solar and unreliable wind. There was a lack of synchronous grid inertia that caused their power grid to collapse at mid-day. At least eleven people that were depending on reliable power died as a consequence. See: "The Spanish Version of the 'Duck Curve' is a real killer - This curve underscores the problem of insufficient synchronous grid inertia in Spain on April 28, 2025" by Gene Nelson, Ph.D., GreenNUKE Substack. https://greennuke.substack.com/p/the-spanish-version-of-the-duck-curve
Ah, yes, further evidence of the progressive left’s involvement with things they know nothing about.
“But, we have more capacity”! Yes, but capacity is a theoretical concept. What matters is the amount of capacity that is always available. And your increased capacity made the grid unstable.
“The range of EVs is greater than ever!” Yes, but that’s also a theoretical concept. What matters is how ambient temperature and payload reduce that range in real life circumstances.
“We’re increasing expenditures on our public schools”! Yes, but student test scores continue to fall, sharply.
I could go on and on but anyone who pays even the least bit of attention knows that the left has, for more than 100 years, over promised and under delivered on every single issue and, in almost every single issue, they’ve made it worse.
Great points. Saying "we have more capacity" with renewables is like bragging about having lots of empty stores and warehouses with nothing to purchase.
Good point about capacity being a theoretical concept. Cost metrics such a Overnight Capital Cost ($/kW) and Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWH) are useful guides, but the value a resource provides to customers as measured by revenue requirement is the most important lens.
The preamble to Herman Wolk’s novel “The Caine Mutiny” makes the complex simple. “The Navy is a masterplan designed by geniuses, to be run by idiots. If you are not an idiot, but find yourself in the Navy, you can only operate well by pretending to be one.” Substitute Navy for all things “power” at the Federal, State and local levels and you have the crux of the dilemma. Here in New England, politicians are still grasping to get the joke. The Gulf of Maine once a vital fishing grounds, is now the Saudi Arabia of “wind energy production.” The only wind it will generate is in the hollowed halls of the Capital Building in Augusta. How many more Mr/Mrs/Ms/they/them Speaker, we’re doing this for the “children!” The most brazen of the lying class is the current Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Poor dear, no one gave her the memo that in the world today what you say and is recorded in public forums stays with you forever. Thus when Governor Healy says, I was all for suing two major natural gas pipeline developers who would bring sorely needed NG to the region, it is hard to listen to her say, “I never said that…” None the less here we are, Tesla and Edison may have had their differences, but no can argue that they were geniuses, and they most have inherently known that that whatever they came up with, it would be run by idiots. They could have never in their wildest dreams figured on the ruling classes being so greedy and stupid. But, here we are. In a typhoon with 50 foot waves, a gale blowing at 100 mph and a captain on the bridge frozen in fear. Luckily it seems the XO is willing to risk Courts Martial to save the ship. Turn her into the wind…er ah well you all get the drift…
Anecdotal, when Edison put on his grand light display at Menlo Park New Jersey, he knew there would be mischief. He divided his light strings into groups and protected each group with a fuse, first record of circuit protection I have found. True to form, agents hired by the arc lighting companies infiltrated the party. They had copper jumper wires in their pockets and attempted to knock out the whole display by shorting it out. They only succeeded in knocking off a few groups, they were quickly discovered and removed by security. The burned fused were replaced and the evening went on.
Wow! What a great story or rather history! Think on it. Geniuses combating geniuses! Now we have mid wits and idiots in charge of the whole shebang! It might be fun to set something up that allowed them play with some low voltage gear that rewarded their stupidity with a little bit of bite. Not enough to hurt them just enough for them to realize this is tricky stuff! 60 Hertz in the line at unity at all times or else….ZAAAPPPPED! Ouch! Okay okay I get it!! Wow you power guys are smart!!
And there are loads of high level policy makers who truly believe batteries will save us. I recently met with the energy advisor for a governor within PJM and he is all in on batteries. PJM’s ELCC is the problem, not wind/solar/batteries. Help!
Sobering information that reminds us Affordable, Reliable, Clean Energy Security legislation must be codified into law federally & the states use it as is or modify it as they desire - if America 🇺🇸 is to remain America 🇺🇸 without ARC, industrial progress, economic prosperity, and the American Dream are only a mirage ...
PJM
Capacity prices in PJM recently hit record-setting levels, at $333/MW-day, after failing to reach reliability targets.
And it’s no wonder.
Despite having more capacity installed than ever before, reliable capacity in PJM has actually decreased by 2 gigawatts (GW) since 2016, from 198 GW to 196 GW, and is down 6.8 GW since firm capacity peaked in 2018. This comes at a time when peak demand hit new records in 2025 at over 160 GW, according to data from the EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor.
Renewables cannot REPLACE dispatchable generation, they can only DISPLACE a portion of its output, resulting in recovery of stable fixed costs from diminishing generator output, thus increasing capacity prices.
Couldn't agree more. Unfortunately for us, the fact that intermittent resources can't/shouldn't be used to replace dispatchable capacity hasn't stopped almost every RTO from trying.
In Germany, they’ve invested half a trillion dollars, more than doubled the capacity of their electricity grid, and produced 20% less electricity than they did before the half trillion dollar investment, and sold it three times the price.”
Ten trillion dollars on a global base has been invested nominally in fighting climate change,” and that has resulted in solar producing only 1.2% and wind 1.4% of global energy.
Wait until they try to "firm" the renewable generation with batteries, which currently cost ~7 times the cost of renewable generators per unit of capacity.
America got “sucker punched” by the environmentalist and those supporting them. They have powerful lobbyists who knew how to get the government in power to give them all the money and permits they wanted. And us ducks on the sideline quietly watched and waited to see these “miracles “ come together. Why were we so stupid? Why did we not let them raise their own funds and prove their technology and all the benefits before giving them Trillions? Now we are stuck with ugly on our horizons, and dirty solar panels tha are hoping for a lot of rain to clean. But during those cleaning months the sun is not shining.
Yes we got suckered, big time. Time to permanently turn off that spigot.
Thanks, Bad Boys. In most developed countries and states, the utilization factor for all sources is heading toward the natural capacity factor for the dominant renewable for the area. It is like teaching at the level of the dumbest kid.
Amazing, amazingly idiotic. And the excuse for this is supposedly to prevent "Global Boiling".
Well, let's see how well they did at that task. Since Kyoto Accords were implemented in 2005, about $7T has been spent worldwide on Wind & Solar power, and their associated infrastructure, batteries, grid upgrades etc. And the carbon intensity of primary energy consumption has dropped from 0.23 to 0.22 kg CO2/kwh. During the previous 20yrs it dropped from 0.24 to 0.23. So what did that $7T accomplish?
Note France managed to go from 0.23 kg CO2/kwh primary energy in 1979 to 0.13 in 1999. At a far lower proportional cost.
So for all that expense wind+solar is now 2.8% of World primary energy consumption in 2024. That has increased by 1190 TWh from 2022 to 2024. While total energy consumption has increased by 5523 TWh. The increase in wind & solar can't even come close to keeping up with the growth in World primary energy consumption, never mind actually replace fossil energy - which is the stated goal.
Talk about flogging a dead horse. Is this really about climate change, or is it about impoverishment, deindustrialization. social degradation, depopulation and globalitarianism? We are being ruled over by Malthusian, Misanthropic, Psychopathic Parasites. Sounds a lot like the George Soros types.
I think your carbon intensity numbers are off by a bit. Or is the key in the term "primary energy consumption"?
My understanding is that the German grid, e.g. is still emitting about 400 grams of CO2 per KWHr of electricity generated, which would be .40 Kg CO2/KWh.
France has been around 60 grams for some time. Coal generation, in general is around 800 grams/KWHr and NG somewhere around 400 g/KWHr.
Wind and solar should never have been allowed to get on the grid, much less subsidised and mandates. Chris Wright is calling it the worst malinvestment, for years I have been calling it the worst public policy blunder on record,
Trillions of dollars spent worldwide on wind and solar have delivered more expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic damage to forests and farmlands.
That could have been averted if the net zero enthusiasts had taken account of the implications of wind droughts.
Dirt farmers are alert to the threat of rain droughts, but meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the wind farmers never checked the reliability of the wind supply.
RE enthusiasts celebrate the ever-increasing capacity and the peak performance on sunny and windy Sunday afternoons but they are looking through the wrong end of the telescope. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link and nocturnal wind droughts are the weak links in the chain of the renewable energy transition.
SE AUSTRALIA AS A SIMPLIFIED MODEL. ORIGINALLY ALL COAL, WITHOUT IMPORTS, GAS OR NUCLEAR
The tipping point and the wind drought trap are easy to see here because not long ago it was all coal with a little hydro. No nuclear and next to no gas for power generation.
RE started slowly after the turn of the millennium, then between 2012 and 2023 ten coal stations closed without being replaced. After Hazelwood closed in 2017 there has been a constant threat of outages during extreme weather if any breakdowns occur at the dinnertime peak of demand.
Any further loss of coal capacity will mean that load shedding may be required practically every night when there is little or no wind.
The RE enthusiasts expect that increasing the capacity of wind and solar will ensure that the gap is closed but on windless nights there nothing to fill the gap.
The chaos that we expected after 2017 has been deferred by deindustrialisation, with no official documentation and no well-informed media coverage. The overnight base load has been virtually static near 20GW since 2018.
as Doomberg pointed out this morning, apparently Ohio has figured some things out, but I fear that we will need to see major blackouts before enough people recognize that this has been a problem in the making that was entirely political, and such that politicians take the blame
Agreed! Maybe not even then, unfortunately.
Fear not, it will be spun as greedy energy companies.
Thank you EBBs and happy (nearly) new year! It's long been my assumption that if you're going to take a chainsaw to a tree branch you're sitting on, it's wise to sit on the trunk side of the cut. But then what do I know?
It's the Tree Swing Meme all over again, "as installed at the user's site."
If power is not 100% available when demanded, it is not capacity, and should not be included in the calculation of capacity. Wind and solar do not fit the definition, but coal, gas and nuclear do.
Absolutely! The ability to produce at capacity and the ability to do it at any given moment are two different things, and not even capacity value ratings account for this fully (even though it tries).
The look at ERCOT is interesting. Their market is the holy grail many point to when they attack the PJM capacity market and call it broken. In reality what you are showing is ERCOT is the Walmart of RTOs. Anything works as long as it's cheap, breaks as soon as soon as you put pressure on it.
The great equalizer is always massive winter storms. It's been a while since we had a Uri, or an Elliott, we are due. When power systems collapse people die, it's that simple. Will casualties cause change, I am not sure anymore.
I have the same feeling - it certainly didnt after Uri, at least not in the way it should've. People spin these events any way they want and simply keep rolling down the same path.
The last time the Texas grid murdered hundreds of people there were articles published within hours blaming it on gas generation. Almost as if the articles were already written and just waiting for the event...
It had far more to do with Texas converting their gas compressor stations to electric compressors because they were cheaper to run, they could have kept their combustion compressors as backup, but they sold them instead. But that dirty little secret got buried pretty deep.
No change st ERCOT until we lose grabbott and the perry influence. Only then will there be a management change and staff purge.
The article is right on target to help address the very generic, misleading discussions of renewable capacity additions in the public forum.
There are multiple factors that will increase the risk to the grid over the next few years. The pipeline of already contracted for and in-construction renewable resources will continue to come online for several years further reducing the Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) of each new resource. While the industry has very prudently pivoted back to dispatchable gas resources, most of these are a few years away (our new greenfield gas is not anticipated until 2031). Finally, there’s increasing risk in the existing fossil fleet given the age of some of the resources. Some research I did a few years ago identified the steadily increasing capacity-weighted age of our gas fleet. Not only is the average age increasing due to the lack of new resources, but the increase in load is causing our oldest peaking resources to be dispatched at a capacity factor that is a multiple of their historical dispatch (~5X for out peaking CT’s). The overall dispatch risk of dispatching a peaking combustion turbine at a 5% capacity factor is meaningfully higher than if it were dispatched at 1%.
The way I continue to think about the U.S. grid is very similar to a large ship (say a very large crude carrier). The trajectory of the ship is crucial given the time is takes to either turn and or stop. The U.S. grid’s currently trajectory, shaped by the ill-advised renewable heavy policies over the last 10 to 15 years, is one of rapidly increasing cost and reduced reliability. While policies are prudently starting to pivot back to a balanced generation portfolio, it will be another 3 to 5 years before grid cost and reliability risks peak.
Great insight as always. Thanks, Ted!
Thank you for your analysis, Mitch and Isaac. The lack of firm capacity is beginning to bite many parts of the U.S. as a consequence of the harmful favoring of intermittent solar and intermittent wind. But the situation is worse than you describe.... As CGNP noted with respect to the deadly April 28, 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout, there were two perfectly good nuclear power reactors standing idle that morning as a consequence of policy choices that favored unreliable solar and unreliable wind. There was a lack of synchronous grid inertia that caused their power grid to collapse at mid-day. At least eleven people that were depending on reliable power died as a consequence. See: "The Spanish Version of the 'Duck Curve' is a real killer - This curve underscores the problem of insufficient synchronous grid inertia in Spain on April 28, 2025" by Gene Nelson, Ph.D., GreenNUKE Substack. https://greennuke.substack.com/p/the-spanish-version-of-the-duck-curve
Ah, yes, further evidence of the progressive left’s involvement with things they know nothing about.
“But, we have more capacity”! Yes, but capacity is a theoretical concept. What matters is the amount of capacity that is always available. And your increased capacity made the grid unstable.
“The range of EVs is greater than ever!” Yes, but that’s also a theoretical concept. What matters is how ambient temperature and payload reduce that range in real life circumstances.
“We’re increasing expenditures on our public schools”! Yes, but student test scores continue to fall, sharply.
I could go on and on but anyone who pays even the least bit of attention knows that the left has, for more than 100 years, over promised and under delivered on every single issue and, in almost every single issue, they’ve made it worse.
Great points. Saying "we have more capacity" with renewables is like bragging about having lots of empty stores and warehouses with nothing to purchase.
Which reminds me of the old Soviet joke:
A factory worker boasts: "For the Fourth Five-Year Plan, we'll produce 100,000 pairs of boots!"
His friend asks: "But we only make one boot!"
The first worker: "Don't worry! In the next Five-Year Plan, we'll make the other!"
Good point about capacity being a theoretical concept. Cost metrics such a Overnight Capital Cost ($/kW) and Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWH) are useful guides, but the value a resource provides to customers as measured by revenue requirement is the most important lens.
The preamble to Herman Wolk’s novel “The Caine Mutiny” makes the complex simple. “The Navy is a masterplan designed by geniuses, to be run by idiots. If you are not an idiot, but find yourself in the Navy, you can only operate well by pretending to be one.” Substitute Navy for all things “power” at the Federal, State and local levels and you have the crux of the dilemma. Here in New England, politicians are still grasping to get the joke. The Gulf of Maine once a vital fishing grounds, is now the Saudi Arabia of “wind energy production.” The only wind it will generate is in the hollowed halls of the Capital Building in Augusta. How many more Mr/Mrs/Ms/they/them Speaker, we’re doing this for the “children!” The most brazen of the lying class is the current Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Poor dear, no one gave her the memo that in the world today what you say and is recorded in public forums stays with you forever. Thus when Governor Healy says, I was all for suing two major natural gas pipeline developers who would bring sorely needed NG to the region, it is hard to listen to her say, “I never said that…” None the less here we are, Tesla and Edison may have had their differences, but no can argue that they were geniuses, and they most have inherently known that that whatever they came up with, it would be run by idiots. They could have never in their wildest dreams figured on the ruling classes being so greedy and stupid. But, here we are. In a typhoon with 50 foot waves, a gale blowing at 100 mph and a captain on the bridge frozen in fear. Luckily it seems the XO is willing to risk Courts Martial to save the ship. Turn her into the wind…er ah well you all get the drift…
The evolving US grid is a master plan designed by idiots for execution by geniuses. We had best hope there are sufficient geniuses available.
Anecdotal, when Edison put on his grand light display at Menlo Park New Jersey, he knew there would be mischief. He divided his light strings into groups and protected each group with a fuse, first record of circuit protection I have found. True to form, agents hired by the arc lighting companies infiltrated the party. They had copper jumper wires in their pockets and attempted to knock out the whole display by shorting it out. They only succeeded in knocking off a few groups, they were quickly discovered and removed by security. The burned fused were replaced and the evening went on.
Wow! What a great story or rather history! Think on it. Geniuses combating geniuses! Now we have mid wits and idiots in charge of the whole shebang! It might be fun to set something up that allowed them play with some low voltage gear that rewarded their stupidity with a little bit of bite. Not enough to hurt them just enough for them to realize this is tricky stuff! 60 Hertz in the line at unity at all times or else….ZAAAPPPPED! Ouch! Okay okay I get it!! Wow you power guys are smart!!
Given the times I suspect the security guards probably left a few knots on the scoundrels heads on the way out.
If you want to read the book, https://books.google.com/books/about/Light_for_the_World.html?id=2EdCAAAAIAAJ
And there are loads of high level policy makers who truly believe batteries will save us. I recently met with the energy advisor for a governor within PJM and he is all in on batteries. PJM’s ELCC is the problem, not wind/solar/batteries. Help!
Yikes. I have issues with ELCC as well, just in the opposite direction.
Sobering information that reminds us Affordable, Reliable, Clean Energy Security legislation must be codified into law federally & the states use it as is or modify it as they desire - if America 🇺🇸 is to remain America 🇺🇸 without ARC, industrial progress, economic prosperity, and the American Dream are only a mirage ...
PJM
Capacity prices in PJM recently hit record-setting levels, at $333/MW-day, after failing to reach reliability targets.
And it’s no wonder.
Despite having more capacity installed than ever before, reliable capacity in PJM has actually decreased by 2 gigawatts (GW) since 2016, from 198 GW to 196 GW, and is down 6.8 GW since firm capacity peaked in 2018. This comes at a time when peak demand hit new records in 2025 at over 160 GW, according to data from the EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor.
Renewables cannot REPLACE dispatchable generation, they can only DISPLACE a portion of its output, resulting in recovery of stable fixed costs from diminishing generator output, thus increasing capacity prices.
Couldn't agree more. Unfortunately for us, the fact that intermittent resources can't/shouldn't be used to replace dispatchable capacity hasn't stopped almost every RTO from trying.
Many of their members are constrained by RPS or CES requirements.
They also realize that ultimately they would be reqauired to invest in storage, which means big CAPEX into ratebase.
Spot on Ed…
In Germany, they’ve invested half a trillion dollars, more than doubled the capacity of their electricity grid, and produced 20% less electricity than they did before the half trillion dollar investment, and sold it three times the price.”
Ten trillion dollars on a global base has been invested nominally in fighting climate change,” and that has resulted in solar producing only 1.2% and wind 1.4% of global energy.
Wait until they try to "firm" the renewable generation with batteries, which currently cost ~7 times the cost of renewable generators per unit of capacity.
America got “sucker punched” by the environmentalist and those supporting them. They have powerful lobbyists who knew how to get the government in power to give them all the money and permits they wanted. And us ducks on the sideline quietly watched and waited to see these “miracles “ come together. Why were we so stupid? Why did we not let them raise their own funds and prove their technology and all the benefits before giving them Trillions? Now we are stuck with ugly on our horizons, and dirty solar panels tha are hoping for a lot of rain to clean. But during those cleaning months the sun is not shining.
Yes we got suckered, big time. Time to permanently turn off that spigot.
I suspect most folks here knew exactly where this would end up 20 years ago.
We simply had no public voice through which to affect meaningful resistance.
The voice of energy reason is still pretty muted on the public stage, although having Chris Wright as Secretary is helping.
If it’s not dispatchable it’s not capacity. Simple.
Thanks, Bad Boys. In most developed countries and states, the utilization factor for all sources is heading toward the natural capacity factor for the dominant renewable for the area. It is like teaching at the level of the dumbest kid.
Ha!
I live in Montana, plenty of spots to build nuclear power plants here.
Amazing, amazingly idiotic. And the excuse for this is supposedly to prevent "Global Boiling".
Well, let's see how well they did at that task. Since Kyoto Accords were implemented in 2005, about $7T has been spent worldwide on Wind & Solar power, and their associated infrastructure, batteries, grid upgrades etc. And the carbon intensity of primary energy consumption has dropped from 0.23 to 0.22 kg CO2/kwh. During the previous 20yrs it dropped from 0.24 to 0.23. So what did that $7T accomplish?
Note France managed to go from 0.23 kg CO2/kwh primary energy in 1979 to 0.13 in 1999. At a far lower proportional cost.
So for all that expense wind+solar is now 2.8% of World primary energy consumption in 2024. That has increased by 1190 TWh from 2022 to 2024. While total energy consumption has increased by 5523 TWh. The increase in wind & solar can't even come close to keeping up with the growth in World primary energy consumption, never mind actually replace fossil energy - which is the stated goal.
Talk about flogging a dead horse. Is this really about climate change, or is it about impoverishment, deindustrialization. social degradation, depopulation and globalitarianism? We are being ruled over by Malthusian, Misanthropic, Psychopathic Parasites. Sounds a lot like the George Soros types.
I think your carbon intensity numbers are off by a bit. Or is the key in the term "primary energy consumption"?
My understanding is that the German grid, e.g. is still emitting about 400 grams of CO2 per KWHr of electricity generated, which would be .40 Kg CO2/KWh.
France has been around 60 grams for some time. Coal generation, in general is around 800 grams/KWHr and NG somewhere around 400 g/KWHr.
Yes that's for primary energy consumption. I get that from here:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-per-unit-energy?tab=line&country=OWID_WRL~USA~GBR~CHN~IND~ZAF~AUS~DEU
And it shows Germany @ 0.18, France @ 0.1 kg/kwh thermal primary energy. That's not full lifecycle and doesn't include embodied emissions.
And it shows Germany @ 338 and France @ 41 gms CO2eq/kwh for electricity generation, full lifecycle.
Nice work Bad Boys, we are on the same page, I call it the wind drought trap.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/defusing-the-wind-drought-trap-revised
Wind and solar should never have been allowed to get on the grid, much less subsidised and mandates. Chris Wright is calling it the worst malinvestment, for years I have been calling it the worst public policy blunder on record,
Trillions of dollars spent worldwide on wind and solar have delivered more expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic damage to forests and farmlands.
That could have been averted if the net zero enthusiasts had taken account of the implications of wind droughts.
Dirt farmers are alert to the threat of rain droughts, but meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the wind farmers never checked the reliability of the wind supply.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/the-late-discovery-of-wind-droughts
LOOKING AT THE WORST CASE
RE enthusiasts celebrate the ever-increasing capacity and the peak performance on sunny and windy Sunday afternoons but they are looking through the wrong end of the telescope. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link and nocturnal wind droughts are the weak links in the chain of the renewable energy transition.
SE AUSTRALIA AS A SIMPLIFIED MODEL. ORIGINALLY ALL COAL, WITHOUT IMPORTS, GAS OR NUCLEAR
The tipping point and the wind drought trap are easy to see here because not long ago it was all coal with a little hydro. No nuclear and next to no gas for power generation.
RE started slowly after the turn of the millennium, then between 2012 and 2023 ten coal stations closed without being replaced. After Hazelwood closed in 2017 there has been a constant threat of outages during extreme weather if any breakdowns occur at the dinnertime peak of demand.
Any further loss of coal capacity will mean that load shedding may be required practically every night when there is little or no wind.
The RE enthusiasts expect that increasing the capacity of wind and solar will ensure that the gap is closed but on windless nights there nothing to fill the gap.
The chaos that we expected after 2017 has been deferred by deindustrialisation, with no official documentation and no well-informed media coverage. The overnight base load has been virtually static near 20GW since 2018.
MORE COMMENTARY TOMORROW