Very nice article reminding us that many people will change there views with enough financial incentives.
One aspect I find amusing is that northern states, where solar is significantly less productive, often appear to have higher renewables mandates. As the article points out, Minnesota has a 25% target while Maine has an even higher 40% mandate. Arizona had a 15% mandate, which I believe was recently removed by the Arizona Corporation Commission. In contract to these mandates, the NREL calculated direct normal solar irradiance (KWH/M2/Day) for Arizona appears to be ~53% greater than Minnesota and ~69% great than Maine. This difference in solar irradiance is likely directly correlated with solar generation and therefore levelized cost of energy. I'm guessing that the cost-effectiveness (value/cost) that customers in these northern states are forced to accept is very low relative to other generation sources.
Some additional confirmation of the solar performance difference between Minnesota and Arizona:
2024 EIA state-level solar capacity factors:
- Minnesota: 19.4%
- Arizona: 28.7%
So Arizona projects would generate ~48% more energy than those in Minnesota. An additional factor that may impact their value is reference to capacity factors as low as 3% during the winter months. I would think this would be indicative of overall load Effective Load Carrying Capacities (ELCC), even if firmed with battery storage.
Coincidentally, the places with the highest electricity prices have the highest renewables penetration. Yes correlation is not causation, and aphorisms are not valid argument.
Great post and dredges up memories I have of doing some work in the MN legislature when Pawlenty introduced his bill. He wanted to run for President and believed this would make him stand out in a good way compared to other Rs (a very debateable read of the electorate). He made a stupendous tactical blunder to start off with. He introduced a very ambitious bill when only one house was R, with the other D. So of course the Ds said "Great! Nice start, but here's how to do it. We'll increase every mandate in here and add some more!" They made their constituents happy and sent back an even more stringent and expensive bill. With a lukewarm reception from the Rs, and some grumbling, Pawlenty failed to back up the Rs in their house - he couldn't oppose renewables, could he?). Afraid of losing the whole thing he didn't fight back and he signed the bill when it got to him, claiming victory. Pathetic.
Wow !! With all the nefarious stuff tied to Tim Walz, I’d completely forgotten that Minnesota was governed by Tim Pawlenty, as a Republican** no less, and not that long ago. Yes, it seems clear that Pawlenty is just another money-grubbing former politician now turned commercial pimp.
Where does one go to purchase some of this "low cost storage" Pawlenty heralds? Is it short-duration, intermediate-duration or long-duration storage? What is its round-trip efficiency?
Replacing fossil generation is not the same as merely displacing a portion of its output.
Good article! The base LCOE of grid-scale solar in NYS is already over $100/MWh, according to the NYPA. This is an expensive state for solar, with high construction costs and low capacity factors. Given Climate Act mandates, any firming should be emissions-free, so that takes oil and gas out of the equation (NYS already closed its coal plants). Try plugging emissions-free firming into that LCOE calculation….
And if we’re actually going to consider lowering downstate emissions, we’ll need to invest (many) billions in transmission infrastructure to deliver solar and onshore wind energy to that region. Solar is up against some very tough realities here. Not that realities have ever slowed down the climate industry or most NYS politicians.
Recognize the LCOE is the liars cost of energy. The only cost that matters is the cost to end users. All of the adjustments and fudge factors applied obfuscate the fact the zealots want to hide - the actual and full cost.
Oh, I agree completely. I spend a lot of time arguing with people who earnestly believe solar makes sense here in cloudy upstate NY, though. They’ve heard about the low national LCOE of solar and don’t realize just how ridiculous it is to build here. THEN I point out the added costs of storage/overbuilding, grid integration, firming (esp. w/zero-emissions resources), and so on, that make it so expensive in other locations as well.
This is interesting information. As you may know PacifiCorp and CAISO joined to make the nucleus of an Extended Day Ahead Market (EDAM) in April. CAISO are hoping that everyone involved in the Western Energy Imbalance Market (WEIM) will eventually join. There are mysterious and what appear to me to be inconsistent beliefs about what the EDAM will accomplish.
PacifiCorp through their subsidiary Rocky Mountain Power are pretty certain the EDAM will enable them to reduce coal plant curtailments (sell coal power into CAISO I guess) which now result entirely by giving wind/solar priority within PacifiCorp East (PACE). RMP also seem to be banking on more wind sales into CAISO which is how they sold the Gateway South to the Wyo PSC. The renewables trade groups appear to think that the EDAM will reduce CAISO curtailments. The only way that I see all dreams coming true is for data center demand in Wyoming to increase regional demand greatly and to do so at convenient times of the day.
BTW, in the context of this Bad Boys essay, the renewables trade groups have stated that the EDAM will "level the playing field" for wind/solar. Made me laugh. It takes lots of cheek or lack of awareness to say "level the playing field" when one receives many tens of billions in direct subsidies.
One factor in many WEIM utilities (including I believe all AZ utilities) moving to Markets+ is CAISO's prioritization of California needs over other members during stress events over the past few years. I'm not too familiar with the events but I believe some energy sales were cancelled.
Keep up the good work EBD, btw how do I look up founding member sign up?
Minnesotans or for that matter anybody who is complaining about higher cost gasoline because of Iranian mullahs should now understand in black & white, higher cost of energy is an IMMEDIATE TAX to our lives. Politicos with their skillful spinning & manipulation of we the people, use topics like climate change or nowadays “no data centers” to raise the cost of energy as in utility bills or cost of living through higher cost of food or google, amazon, Microsoft services 😎… all those “no data centers” folks that make the cost of such essential to life services as we know it, who think that the big boys: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, etc… will eat the higher costs of operation through higher costs of data centers or energy and doesn’t get past through to the lowest humans on the proverbial totem pole, aka, we the consumers, should be awakened by you with a strong smell of the coffee ☕️… when the cost of energy goes up, 90% of Americans get directly hurt as in pain in their wallets. Jobs are lost due to the small businesses, the engine of our economy where 80% of Americans work, get squeezed because cost of energy effects them the most.
Affordable Reliable Clean Energy Security Act is Americans and America’s savior … Louisiana passed it as their state energy policy law, Ohio is next, and you all will be hearing lots more about it federally… 🇺🇸🗽🇺🇸
Bruce Rauner, the former Republican governor of Illinois, is on the board of the Environmental Defense Fund. I had him in the gold medal space on the podium for biggest Republican enemy of energy.
But now you make a case for a recount. I guess Rauner should be graded on a curve, as most Illinois governors just go to federal prison when they leave office.
Interesting trend among all voters that captures independent voters as well.🙋♂️. Independent trends are generally ignored in studies like this, and this piece is no different. However independent voters are an important barometer of the actual temperament of the nation. In Ohio the largest voting block is independent.
Very nice article reminding us that many people will change there views with enough financial incentives.
One aspect I find amusing is that northern states, where solar is significantly less productive, often appear to have higher renewables mandates. As the article points out, Minnesota has a 25% target while Maine has an even higher 40% mandate. Arizona had a 15% mandate, which I believe was recently removed by the Arizona Corporation Commission. In contract to these mandates, the NREL calculated direct normal solar irradiance (KWH/M2/Day) for Arizona appears to be ~53% greater than Minnesota and ~69% great than Maine. This difference in solar irradiance is likely directly correlated with solar generation and therefore levelized cost of energy. I'm guessing that the cost-effectiveness (value/cost) that customers in these northern states are forced to accept is very low relative to other generation sources.
Some additional confirmation of the solar performance difference between Minnesota and Arizona:
2024 EIA state-level solar capacity factors:
- Minnesota: 19.4%
- Arizona: 28.7%
So Arizona projects would generate ~48% more energy than those in Minnesota. An additional factor that may impact their value is reference to capacity factors as low as 3% during the winter months. I would think this would be indicative of overall load Effective Load Carrying Capacities (ELCC), even if firmed with battery storage.
I don't want to appear too presumptive, but it's almost like policy makers could use a few lessons in the physics of energy transformation.
Exhibit A: Solar energy at night could aid those terrible capacity factors...LOL
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/04/22/the-solar-panel-that-aint-one/
Coincidentally, the places with the highest electricity prices have the highest renewables penetration. Yes correlation is not causation, and aphorisms are not valid argument.
Great post and dredges up memories I have of doing some work in the MN legislature when Pawlenty introduced his bill. He wanted to run for President and believed this would make him stand out in a good way compared to other Rs (a very debateable read of the electorate). He made a stupendous tactical blunder to start off with. He introduced a very ambitious bill when only one house was R, with the other D. So of course the Ds said "Great! Nice start, but here's how to do it. We'll increase every mandate in here and add some more!" They made their constituents happy and sent back an even more stringent and expensive bill. With a lukewarm reception from the Rs, and some grumbling, Pawlenty failed to back up the Rs in their house - he couldn't oppose renewables, could he?). Afraid of losing the whole thing he didn't fight back and he signed the bill when it got to him, claiming victory. Pathetic.
Wow !! With all the nefarious stuff tied to Tim Walz, I’d completely forgotten that Minnesota was governed by Tim Pawlenty, as a Republican** no less, and not that long ago. Yes, it seems clear that Pawlenty is just another money-grubbing former politician now turned commercial pimp.
(** R as in RINO)
Where does one go to purchase some of this "low cost storage" Pawlenty heralds? Is it short-duration, intermediate-duration or long-duration storage? What is its round-trip efficiency?
Replacing fossil generation is not the same as merely displacing a portion of its output.
https://edreid.substack.com/p/rggi-transition-powerplants
https://edreid.substack.com/p/rggi-transition-powerplant-cost
Good article! The base LCOE of grid-scale solar in NYS is already over $100/MWh, according to the NYPA. This is an expensive state for solar, with high construction costs and low capacity factors. Given Climate Act mandates, any firming should be emissions-free, so that takes oil and gas out of the equation (NYS already closed its coal plants). Try plugging emissions-free firming into that LCOE calculation….
And if we’re actually going to consider lowering downstate emissions, we’ll need to invest (many) billions in transmission infrastructure to deliver solar and onshore wind energy to that region. Solar is up against some very tough realities here. Not that realities have ever slowed down the climate industry or most NYS politicians.
All that, yet closing Indian Point was somehow an urgent need. Sigh.
Recognize the LCOE is the liars cost of energy. The only cost that matters is the cost to end users. All of the adjustments and fudge factors applied obfuscate the fact the zealots want to hide - the actual and full cost.
Oh, I agree completely. I spend a lot of time arguing with people who earnestly believe solar makes sense here in cloudy upstate NY, though. They’ve heard about the low national LCOE of solar and don’t realize just how ridiculous it is to build here. THEN I point out the added costs of storage/overbuilding, grid integration, firming (esp. w/zero-emissions resources), and so on, that make it so expensive in other locations as well.
Exactly!
👏👏
Great deep dive into the changing perceptions of the electorate on the solutions offered up to reduce co2 levels!
By chance have you looked into the effectiveness of CAISO's efforts to minimize curtailments?
“Monthly Curtailed MWh Percentage Compared to Actuals”
https://www.caiso.com/documents/daily-renewable-report-may-13-2026.html
This is interesting information. As you may know PacifiCorp and CAISO joined to make the nucleus of an Extended Day Ahead Market (EDAM) in April. CAISO are hoping that everyone involved in the Western Energy Imbalance Market (WEIM) will eventually join. There are mysterious and what appear to me to be inconsistent beliefs about what the EDAM will accomplish.
PacifiCorp through their subsidiary Rocky Mountain Power are pretty certain the EDAM will enable them to reduce coal plant curtailments (sell coal power into CAISO I guess) which now result entirely by giving wind/solar priority within PacifiCorp East (PACE). RMP also seem to be banking on more wind sales into CAISO which is how they sold the Gateway South to the Wyo PSC. The renewables trade groups appear to think that the EDAM will reduce CAISO curtailments. The only way that I see all dreams coming true is for data center demand in Wyoming to increase regional demand greatly and to do so at convenient times of the day.
BTW, in the context of this Bad Boys essay, the renewables trade groups have stated that the EDAM will "level the playing field" for wind/solar. Made me laugh. It takes lots of cheek or lack of awareness to say "level the playing field" when one receives many tens of billions in direct subsidies.
One factor in many WEIM utilities (including I believe all AZ utilities) moving to Markets+ is CAISO's prioritization of California needs over other members during stress events over the past few years. I'm not too familiar with the events but I believe some energy sales were cancelled.
Keep up the good work EBD, btw how do I look up founding member sign up?
Minnesotans or for that matter anybody who is complaining about higher cost gasoline because of Iranian mullahs should now understand in black & white, higher cost of energy is an IMMEDIATE TAX to our lives. Politicos with their skillful spinning & manipulation of we the people, use topics like climate change or nowadays “no data centers” to raise the cost of energy as in utility bills or cost of living through higher cost of food or google, amazon, Microsoft services 😎… all those “no data centers” folks that make the cost of such essential to life services as we know it, who think that the big boys: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, etc… will eat the higher costs of operation through higher costs of data centers or energy and doesn’t get past through to the lowest humans on the proverbial totem pole, aka, we the consumers, should be awakened by you with a strong smell of the coffee ☕️… when the cost of energy goes up, 90% of Americans get directly hurt as in pain in their wallets. Jobs are lost due to the small businesses, the engine of our economy where 80% of Americans work, get squeezed because cost of energy effects them the most.
Affordable Reliable Clean Energy Security Act is Americans and America’s savior … Louisiana passed it as their state energy policy law, Ohio is next, and you all will be hearing lots more about it federally… 🇺🇸🗽🇺🇸
Bruce Rauner, the former Republican governor of Illinois, is on the board of the Environmental Defense Fund. I had him in the gold medal space on the podium for biggest Republican enemy of energy.
But now you make a case for a recount. I guess Rauner should be graded on a curve, as most Illinois governors just go to federal prison when they leave office.
Interesting trend among all voters that captures independent voters as well.🙋♂️. Independent trends are generally ignored in studies like this, and this piece is no different. However independent voters are an important barometer of the actual temperament of the nation. In Ohio the largest voting block is independent.