The catastrophic waste of resources on the green energy agenda is one of the key reasons that debt loads around the world have risen so quickly. governments have the ability to spend to much on ordinary efforts and certainly don't need another, effectively useless mandate like decarbonization, to add to the bill.
The biggest problem is nobody will ever be held to account for these activities, despite their devastating impact on most peoples' lives.
Anyone with real experience and understanding of the electric grid understands that full cycle costs of renewables are way more expensive and unreliable than traditional nuclear, coal and natural gas generation. The tax payer subsidies hide some of the burden of these higher costs, but are paid for by consumers through higher taxes and inflation. The falsely named inflation reduction act that mandated many of these green energy policies should have been called the “inflation increase act”.
Gene, interesting point on the LNG-driven price floor. You're right that $5–$7 gas changes the Levelized Cost of Energy math on paper, but for the Sovereign AI clusters coming online in 2026, the 'renewables are now competitive' argument hits a physical wall.
The AI build-out isn't just seeking 'cheap' electrons; it's seeking High-Inertia Baseload. As we approach the 120kW Power Wall at the rack level, the grid requires extreme stability that intermittent wind and solar simply cannot provide without massive, high-CAPEX backup. In the ITTSR framework, we look at System Load Resiliency—the ability to handle violent, pulsing load surges from 100T parameter models.
Even with high gas prices, natural gas remains the primary 'bridge' because it provides the rotational inertia and rapid ramping that AI data centers—which will draw up to 5% of peak US demand this year—require. Renewables don't just need to be 'cheaper' than gas; they need to solve the Thermodynamic Tax of grid stabilization, which they currently offload onto the rest of the ratepayers.
If we rely on high gas prices to 'force' a renewable transition, we aren't making America 'Green'; we’re just making our Sovereign AI stack too expensive to run domestically. Look at Anthropic’s recent pledge to cover ratepayer increases—they know the 'Power Wall' is the real bottleneck.
Great analysis, backed by the facts. I’ll add that these rate increases are only a taste of what’s to come. The big IOUs have huge capex budgets in the next few years.
Yes, and the clever financing arrangements include paying for grid upgrades to connect renewables over 5 years after the facility begins operating. This means that rate increases are locked in until at least 2030, probably longer.
Well written piece. I believe the cost of electricity will be very much in focus over the next several years.
Reinforcing a few points:
1) It takes time for utilities to pivot away from the prior clean-dominant focus given the lead-time for new generation and storage resources. So while some utilities have pivoted back to a balanced generation portfolio valuing reliability, cost, and clean, incremental solar and batteries already under contract will continue to drive up electricity costs in the short-term (in some cases under PPA's which a recovered through a Power Supply Adjustor and are not formally part of the rate case).
2) The article points out utilities and regulator stated concerns about electricity costs. I would have more confidence in these concerns if they (utilities, regulators) were taking steps to eliminate and or reduce specialty rates and programs that benefit a small % of the customers.
a) Energy efficiency programs
b) Solar net metering
c) Broad restrictions on terminating service to customers who have not paid there bill, even for an extended period of time (i.e., 6-months).
d) Subsidies for the installation of EV charging stations and or EV electric rates
Governments use utility rates to fund their social engineering projects. It is perfect. No new taxes and the utilities take the heat, often led by the same politicians than demanded it.
Nice piece,guys. Even a solar advocate should realize that scrapping a well functioning system and replacing it with an unproven one for no practical reason is going to cost money. In the case of the grid, lots and lots of money.
The increase in approval of rate cases is easily explained. Regulators are political appointees. If they are told to approve green madness they’ll do it. California’s CPUC used to have a Division of Ratepayers Advocates whose function was to oppose rate cases. The name was changed to the division of Distributed Energy Resources which actively promotes renewables. Screw the ratepayers. We are saving the planet.
Great point. It wasnt yhe main focus of the piece so we didnt go too far into it, but an interesting point - and I had suspected exactly what you bring up. Hard not to approve spending when its aimed at satisfting legislated mandates.
A better description of mandates such as "Renewable Portfolio Standards" is "unfunded mandates." California, with the greatest amount of solar and 4-hour batteries of any state, as well as likely number two behind Texas in wind now has the most expensive residential electricity rates in the continental U.S. Other states should heed California's lesson, and slam the breaks on these wasteful mandates. I'm gratified to observe the sloppy science that was employed to justify these gargantuan increases in the cost of a necessary of life (electricity) are now being forcefully challenged.
You can see some of independent nonprofit CGNP's efforts to demand evidence - based policies are being thwarted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC.) There are several recent articles at our GreenNUKE Substack https://greennuke.substack.com/ . CGNP's perspective is the CPUC is an arrogant, out-of-control bureaucracy. CGNP is an intervenor advocating for the economic interests or ratepayers - and for policies that reduce air and water pollution. Please help us to fight the CPUC.
Ted Kurtz is right. The clean-dominant focus of the last decade is now a lead weight on our 2026 AI ambitions. We're trying to power the Sovereign Stack on a grid designed for social engineering. not high-inertia physics. Read my full audit of the 120kW Wall:
Very true Sarath! The pursuit of solar, wind, and batteries is a lead weight on our 2026 AI ambitions - and hands the keys to entities in the People's Republic of China.
Bingo, great report. Sadly, since the D's intelligence level generally reflects that of most major population areas - with 25% HS dropout rates and those that do graduate being less than a 10th-grade level - they cannot understand the logic in this report and will just believe whatever their elected leaders or MSM say
Instead of lying about the true costs and reliability of renewables, politicians should put the truth about the impact of such measures in front of voters via public referendums. If voters vote for such higher costs and reduced grid reliability, then so be it, otherwise walk it back.
So I’ve worked in Renewables now going on 25 years after 20 years in commercial nuclear. I solve MV/HV challenges with substations, collector systems a Transmission lines selling parts all over. The Greenies I’ll call them always stated that more wind and now solar and BESS would lead to lower power prices. They still say that and double down on anyone saying otherwise like more Renewables will eventually lead to lower prices. The key lack of understanding or acknowledgement is a grid built and run for over 100 years based on synchronous generation form source to load has to be significantly altered (think lots of money) to accelerate and accommodate asynchronous power which renewables are. You note all the changes noted and there costs but one not shown is the equipment damage caused by intermittent asynchronous power that I see in my parts sales. Another note is the race to cheapest solar means just that installations built cheap with absolutely no operational margin which leads to further damage and further increases in power prices. The intermittent nature of very large solar, 300 MW to 500MW on one minute and off the next when cloud cover comes significantly degrades components let alone complicate the power delivery process. But then again you will never convince the greenies they are wrong. It’s all his fault usually blamed at Trump, Republicans and Distribution companies.
RECRUIT THE VOTERS TO PUT PRESSURE ON LAWMAKERS WHO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED BY WIND AND SOLAR LOBBIES
Some surveys show considerable public support for reducing emissions. This could change rapidly when people become more aware of the risk of blackouts if wind and solar continue to impede the entry of coal and gas to the grid.
What if the Administration mandates weather reports to include the amount of wind and solar in the local grid at the time, and people are encouraged to monitor the live dashboard of their local grid.
Good job, but you missed the fact that the utilities are willing accomplices. They are being “forced” to junk fully depreciated low profit old plants and build brand new renewables on which they earn full profits.
New load, especially high load factor like data center has traditionally helped keep prices down due to better utilization of generation. In the new world, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
The primary purpose of the mandates appears to be to increase employment in Communist China, since the supply chains for solar, wind, and batteries all begin in China. In 2024, the top 4 wind turbine manufacturers are all Chinese. These mandates are increasing worldwide pollution, as a consequence of the fact that in 2024, China consumed more coal than the rest of the world combined.
Gene, You've hit on the most critical vulnerability of the 2026 Sovereign Stack. What you're describing as a mandate for foreign employment is, in the ITTSR framework, a fundamental failure of Redundancy and Lithology.
When a nation mandates a transition to solar, wind, and batteries without controlling the Earth's substrate(the minerals like Lithium and Gallium you mentioned), it is not just importing hardware - it is exporting Energetic Autarky - energy demands met locally. We are essentially building the most power-hungry infrastructure in human history (AI) on a 'permissioned' supply chain. As we hit the 120kW Power Wall at the rack level, the demand for high-inertia stability becomes a national security issue. Relying on a 'Communist China' supply chain for the very components intended to stabilize a fragile grid is a circular logic that ignores the laws of the ELL Nexus (Energetics, Logistics, Lithology).
If we don’t prioritize domestic Inventory through initiatives like Project Vault, we won't just be importing pollution; we’ll be importing the 'kill switch' for our domestic intelligence.
You are spot-on Sarath! "If we don’t prioritize domestic Inventory through initiatives like Project Vault, we won't just be importing pollution; we’ll be importing the 'kill switch' for our domestic intelligence." - and all of Western industrialized society! Insanity!
The catastrophic waste of resources on the green energy agenda is one of the key reasons that debt loads around the world have risen so quickly. governments have the ability to spend to much on ordinary efforts and certainly don't need another, effectively useless mandate like decarbonization, to add to the bill.
The biggest problem is nobody will ever be held to account for these activities, despite their devastating impact on most peoples' lives.
Anyone with real experience and understanding of the electric grid understands that full cycle costs of renewables are way more expensive and unreliable than traditional nuclear, coal and natural gas generation. The tax payer subsidies hide some of the burden of these higher costs, but are paid for by consumers through higher taxes and inflation. The falsely named inflation reduction act that mandated many of these green energy policies should have been called the “inflation increase act”.
I prefer "Inflation Production Act".
You know what happens when gas hits $5? A lot of people start drilling to get that price.
Gene, interesting point on the LNG-driven price floor. You're right that $5–$7 gas changes the Levelized Cost of Energy math on paper, but for the Sovereign AI clusters coming online in 2026, the 'renewables are now competitive' argument hits a physical wall.
The AI build-out isn't just seeking 'cheap' electrons; it's seeking High-Inertia Baseload. As we approach the 120kW Power Wall at the rack level, the grid requires extreme stability that intermittent wind and solar simply cannot provide without massive, high-CAPEX backup. In the ITTSR framework, we look at System Load Resiliency—the ability to handle violent, pulsing load surges from 100T parameter models.
Even with high gas prices, natural gas remains the primary 'bridge' because it provides the rotational inertia and rapid ramping that AI data centers—which will draw up to 5% of peak US demand this year—require. Renewables don't just need to be 'cheaper' than gas; they need to solve the Thermodynamic Tax of grid stabilization, which they currently offload onto the rest of the ratepayers.
If we rely on high gas prices to 'force' a renewable transition, we aren't making America 'Green'; we’re just making our Sovereign AI stack too expensive to run domestically. Look at Anthropic’s recent pledge to cover ratepayer increases—they know the 'Power Wall' is the real bottleneck.
Inflation Acceleration Act
I call it the Inflation Creation Act. Has a nice ring to it, if it weren’t so depressing.
👍🏻
Great analysis, backed by the facts. I’ll add that these rate increases are only a taste of what’s to come. The big IOUs have huge capex budgets in the next few years.
Yes, and the clever financing arrangements include paying for grid upgrades to connect renewables over 5 years after the facility begins operating. This means that rate increases are locked in until at least 2030, probably longer.
Well written piece. I believe the cost of electricity will be very much in focus over the next several years.
Reinforcing a few points:
1) It takes time for utilities to pivot away from the prior clean-dominant focus given the lead-time for new generation and storage resources. So while some utilities have pivoted back to a balanced generation portfolio valuing reliability, cost, and clean, incremental solar and batteries already under contract will continue to drive up electricity costs in the short-term (in some cases under PPA's which a recovered through a Power Supply Adjustor and are not formally part of the rate case).
2) The article points out utilities and regulator stated concerns about electricity costs. I would have more confidence in these concerns if they (utilities, regulators) were taking steps to eliminate and or reduce specialty rates and programs that benefit a small % of the customers.
a) Energy efficiency programs
b) Solar net metering
c) Broad restrictions on terminating service to customers who have not paid there bill, even for an extended period of time (i.e., 6-months).
d) Subsidies for the installation of EV charging stations and or EV electric rates
Great points. Thanks Ted!
Governments use utility rates to fund their social engineering projects. It is perfect. No new taxes and the utilities take the heat, often led by the same politicians than demanded it.
Outstanding article, and let's schedule a podcast on this one! WOW
Nice piece,guys. Even a solar advocate should realize that scrapping a well functioning system and replacing it with an unproven one for no practical reason is going to cost money. In the case of the grid, lots and lots of money.
The increase in approval of rate cases is easily explained. Regulators are political appointees. If they are told to approve green madness they’ll do it. California’s CPUC used to have a Division of Ratepayers Advocates whose function was to oppose rate cases. The name was changed to the division of Distributed Energy Resources which actively promotes renewables. Screw the ratepayers. We are saving the planet.
Great point. It wasnt yhe main focus of the piece so we didnt go too far into it, but an interesting point - and I had suspected exactly what you bring up. Hard not to approve spending when its aimed at satisfting legislated mandates.
A better description of mandates such as "Renewable Portfolio Standards" is "unfunded mandates." California, with the greatest amount of solar and 4-hour batteries of any state, as well as likely number two behind Texas in wind now has the most expensive residential electricity rates in the continental U.S. Other states should heed California's lesson, and slam the breaks on these wasteful mandates. I'm gratified to observe the sloppy science that was employed to justify these gargantuan increases in the cost of a necessary of life (electricity) are now being forcefully challenged.
You can see some of independent nonprofit CGNP's efforts to demand evidence - based policies are being thwarted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC.) There are several recent articles at our GreenNUKE Substack https://greennuke.substack.com/ . CGNP's perspective is the CPUC is an arrogant, out-of-control bureaucracy. CGNP is an intervenor advocating for the economic interests or ratepayers - and for policies that reduce air and water pollution. Please help us to fight the CPUC.
Ted Kurtz is right. The clean-dominant focus of the last decade is now a lead weight on our 2026 AI ambitions. We're trying to power the Sovereign Stack on a grid designed for social engineering. not high-inertia physics. Read my full audit of the 120kW Wall:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-187345829
Very true Sarath! The pursuit of solar, wind, and batteries is a lead weight on our 2026 AI ambitions - and hands the keys to entities in the People's Republic of China.
Bingo, great report. Sadly, since the D's intelligence level generally reflects that of most major population areas - with 25% HS dropout rates and those that do graduate being less than a 10th-grade level - they cannot understand the logic in this report and will just believe whatever their elected leaders or MSM say
Another example of why so many of us are in the Disgusted Party in our political system.
Instead of lying about the true costs and reliability of renewables, politicians should put the truth about the impact of such measures in front of voters via public referendums. If voters vote for such higher costs and reduced grid reliability, then so be it, otherwise walk it back.
So I’ve worked in Renewables now going on 25 years after 20 years in commercial nuclear. I solve MV/HV challenges with substations, collector systems a Transmission lines selling parts all over. The Greenies I’ll call them always stated that more wind and now solar and BESS would lead to lower power prices. They still say that and double down on anyone saying otherwise like more Renewables will eventually lead to lower prices. The key lack of understanding or acknowledgement is a grid built and run for over 100 years based on synchronous generation form source to load has to be significantly altered (think lots of money) to accelerate and accommodate asynchronous power which renewables are. You note all the changes noted and there costs but one not shown is the equipment damage caused by intermittent asynchronous power that I see in my parts sales. Another note is the race to cheapest solar means just that installations built cheap with absolutely no operational margin which leads to further damage and further increases in power prices. The intermittent nature of very large solar, 300 MW to 500MW on one minute and off the next when cloud cover comes significantly degrades components let alone complicate the power delivery process. But then again you will never convince the greenies they are wrong. It’s all his fault usually blamed at Trump, Republicans and Distribution companies.
I just can't say enough good about you guys' work.
Then put your money where your mouth is 😉
Thanks for always reading and commenting!
I already have too many subscriptions for now supporting those who have come over from the Left and have lost everything like Sasha Stone.
In due time... ✌️
RECRUIT THE VOTERS TO PUT PRESSURE ON LAWMAKERS WHO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED BY WIND AND SOLAR LOBBIES
Some surveys show considerable public support for reducing emissions. This could change rapidly when people become more aware of the risk of blackouts if wind and solar continue to impede the entry of coal and gas to the grid.
What if the Administration mandates weather reports to include the amount of wind and solar in the local grid at the time, and people are encouraged to monitor the live dashboard of their local grid.
WILL WINDPOWER HEAT YOUR BREAKFAST AND DINNER?
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/will-windpower-heat-your-breakfast
As I write in Sydney, at 10 pm, wind is providing 16% of demand.
Nem Watch | RenewEconomy These are live displays.
It is midmorning in Britain and Solar is contributing 32% of demand, and Solar is 1.7%.
https://grid.iamkate.com/
In Texas qt 4.30 am the wind is providing 12% of demand.
https://www.gridstatus.io/live/ercot
New York at 6am, wind 2.2%!
No hot breakfast and morning coffee from wind and solar there today. LOL
Good job, but you missed the fact that the utilities are willing accomplices. They are being “forced” to junk fully depreciated low profit old plants and build brand new renewables on which they earn full profits.
Part II ... Where is the link to Part I ?
Here you go!
https://open.substack.com/pub/energybadboys/p/electricity-prices-are-soaring-its?r=ibyre&utm_medium=ios
New load, especially high load factor like data center has traditionally helped keep prices down due to better utilization of generation. In the new world, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Perhaps it would if we werent also spending billions on artificial mandates and transitioms that are exacerbating rising costs.
The primary purpose of the mandates appears to be to increase employment in Communist China, since the supply chains for solar, wind, and batteries all begin in China. In 2024, the top 4 wind turbine manufacturers are all Chinese. These mandates are increasing worldwide pollution, as a consequence of the fact that in 2024, China consumed more coal than the rest of the world combined.
Gene, You've hit on the most critical vulnerability of the 2026 Sovereign Stack. What you're describing as a mandate for foreign employment is, in the ITTSR framework, a fundamental failure of Redundancy and Lithology.
When a nation mandates a transition to solar, wind, and batteries without controlling the Earth's substrate(the minerals like Lithium and Gallium you mentioned), it is not just importing hardware - it is exporting Energetic Autarky - energy demands met locally. We are essentially building the most power-hungry infrastructure in human history (AI) on a 'permissioned' supply chain. As we hit the 120kW Power Wall at the rack level, the demand for high-inertia stability becomes a national security issue. Relying on a 'Communist China' supply chain for the very components intended to stabilize a fragile grid is a circular logic that ignores the laws of the ELL Nexus (Energetics, Logistics, Lithology).
If we don’t prioritize domestic Inventory through initiatives like Project Vault, we won't just be importing pollution; we’ll be importing the 'kill switch' for our domestic intelligence.
You are spot-on Sarath! "If we don’t prioritize domestic Inventory through initiatives like Project Vault, we won't just be importing pollution; we’ll be importing the 'kill switch' for our domestic intelligence." - and all of Western industrialized society! Insanity!
Well written and well done!