One of the greatest sleight of hand tricks in a sector built on sleight of hand tricks is NextERA and Florida Power Light and their unique legal/regulatory relationship. In a classic case of nothing to see here, both take advantage of the regulatory environment to gain rate base and market share as well as access to Wall Street investment capital. John Prine’s “Living in the Future” couldn’t be more accurate when one thinks that we have now come nearly full circle on the deregulation of the electric power energy sector. This mess makes Dodge City feel tame. MISO runs out of juice and calls on other ISO’s to bail them out and the others are struggling to meet their own demand. The New England States continue to set records on the speed in which they are doubling down on stupid to show, place and win, Maine a great example is doing its best to shutter the two sectors that make money, tourism and lobster fishing as they gleefully describe the fishing grounds of the Gulf of Maine as the Saudi Arabia of wind generation. The current governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and former AG, is trying to distance herself from her successful lawsuits that ran Kinder Morgan and another pipeline developer off, and leave the state with the specter of buying LNG from now until the cows come in. Which will be a long time, since they want to ban cows, because of their methane gas emissions. Pay no attention to that wind turbine generator blade washing up on the beaches of Nantucket. The Horror. Go west young man look at California’s ongoing efforts to remove the Potter Valley Dam System, a 120 year old system that supplies local load and water resources for two counties. What possibly could go wrong? Nothing of course since those stalwart owners of the project Pacific Gas and Electric are right there in the mix with the looney bin in Sacramento, aka the state legislature. You can trust PG&E they are not like the others! Just ask their law firm, Dewy, Cheatham and Howe! In the final analysis this will come to a head in various states, as the tax payer and their shadow the rate payer look at a price of electric power delivered to their meter at .50 cents a kilowatt. Until then, as they say in Maine, it is 11 months of winter and one month of damn tough sledding. It will get much worse before it gets better. Paraphrasing Dean Wormer in Animal House “living in the cold and dark is no way to go through life.” That is correct Dean, but it will be reality here shortly.
Great comment Charles! The hidden costs of Wind/solar due to a necessity for also having dispatchable back available as a result of their very low production capacity ratio in comparison to dispatchable is only one of the problems, the other being the grid dynamics that need to be in place to handle both local and regional dynamics. Restarting closures has limitations in that all of those facilities are old, with many patches to keep them operating long after their full depreciation. New Natural gas combined cycle systems is the way to go, increasing fossil fuel thermal efficiencies by a ratio of 1.8 over Rankine cycle and standard GT peakers, but the green new deal collapsed market for turbines over the past administration's emphasis on "no more fossil energy" stifled industry growth and delivery times of new systems have soared to several years from 2 months since April '25.
Plus the new turbines like the GE Frame 7 series can now (to a degree) load follow. That is a huge benefit for a lot of reasons. All we can do is keep trying to get the attention of the public writ large and "educate" them to the perils of wind and solar at the utility scale level that we are now having to deal with, particularly their expensive knock on effects on grid stability.
"Our country has built hundreds of thousands of megawatts (MW) of new capacity in the last decade during a period of low to no energy demand growth, and still has an energy supply crisis—people should start asking why. The answer is that most of this new capacity has been inefficient wind and solar generators that do next to nothing to actually contributing to reliability."
There is, I think, a way to combat this in many places. That is to use the "used and useful" doctrine to trim additions to rate base to what the generating sources actually contribute to service delivery. Assets that are quiet all night, or disappear at any time of day or night, by any reasonable definition are only partially "used and useful." It'll set off some fights in court, but that is preferable to the entire country being saddled with California or worse (UK) rates. Some states' enabling legislation does not mention "used and useful" but quite a lot does.
EBBs, any ideas how to reverse the unreliables generation percentage in California? Per CAISO, as of 10/08/25, California had 21,722 MW of solar, 8,355 MW of wind, and 14,248.69 MW of 4-hour batteries. Californians for Green Nuclear Power maintains the perspective this is "junk power" because it requires dispatchable fossil-fired, large hydro and nuclear power generation for this 44,325.69 MW of solar+wind+batteries power to be useful. For details, see: https://www.caiso.com/documents/key-statistics-sep-2025.pdf
To read that we are still suffering the aftermath of Joe’s Green New Deal with unscrupulous access to the dumb subsidies. What a pointless grift. Why is nobody legislating that AI projects integrate their power needs behind the fence, independent of the grid?
This is criminal to be putting on ratepayers backs with everything we know about unreliables 👇
The utilities reported that 62 percent of their expected future additions would be wind, solar, or battery storage. This is down slightly from the 71 percent estimate in early 2025, reflecting a nod to the reality that we’ll need reliable power to meet rising demand for data centers, but this still represents a massive amount of malinvestment on the power system.
Americans 🇺🇸 need the ARC… failure for this legislation to become the energy law of the land means what happens to our energy bills per Jason’s article here, therefore, failure is NOT an option…
Thanks for the link to the Affordable, Reliable, Clean (ARC) energy policy advocated for by Rep. Troy Balderson. It should be obvious by now that the CAR approach has four flat tires! Energy Secretary Wright also needs to rescind the improperly-issued DoE LPO loans issued after President Trump was elected, but before he took office.
Spot on gentlemen. Nice article. I’d like to point out that we ain’t seen nothing yet. Interconnection tariffs typically require the project developer to front the money for the cost of new grid upgrades. The utility pays the developer back over 5 years or so after the project becomes operational. The expenditure is added to the rate base as these payments are made. If you apply to connect a battery in California today it will become operational in 2032 and cost at least $30 million to connect. The rate increases are locked in until 2037 even if we quit today.
And as @DaveWalshEnergy reports the NatGas turbine manufacturers are prioritizing the data-centers in front of regular American infrastructure. That tells you the wheels are off and the 'green' movement will start dying as reality hits; think of it as "we will create smaller nuclear reactors and then figure out what do do with the waste." type of moment.
I 100% concur with - "you need to pay attention to Integrated Resource Plans and rate cases filed at utility commissions today.” Thanks for all the hard work you guys have put into giving us a heads up on whats coming down the pike!
If had a cd player I'd review whats on my February 29, 2012 Pacific Gas and Electric Company Rate Design Window A. 12-2-XXX cd. I have lots of the paper filings from that time frame, but I have lost electronic data files over the years...
Americans can take comfort in the fact that their energy sector is nowhere near as fucked as Europe's. Here in the UK, I've already bought a gas cannister stove and am looking at generators.
The future of electricity comes down to who can deliver firm, low cost power at scale. Everything else is secondary.
Variable generation will play a role, but it won’t anchor an economy. The countries and companies that secure stable baseload will own manufacturing, AI infrastructure and long term cost advantages.
Electricity systems shape economic power. The places that treat firm energy as the foundation instead of an afterthought are the ones that win the next decade.
Interesting as usual boys. What I am seeing with AEP is some massive investments in expansion of their 765KV network. New generation must be in a different market because that's news to me. But two big 765KV projects, one along the East Coast to tap the Northern Virginia data center market, and a new network in Texas. They are building 345kV and 138kV lines around here to serve the New Albany data campus like putting up connex. Tons of Transmission everywhere if you explore. If you want tolls, you need to build the toll road.
One paradigm for explaining the entire climate crisis is as a way to squeeze more money out of consumers in the stable, unchanging environment of electricity generation, by making it volatile and unreliable.
Unfortunately the incentive structures for utilities is completely misaligned with providing efficient baseload power. They make their money by building new infrastructure, and what better way to make a quick buck than to build highly unreliable, massive utility scale solar and wind projects that will never provide the nameplate capacity, and will have to be torn down and replaced in less than two decades.
One of the greatest sleight of hand tricks in a sector built on sleight of hand tricks is NextERA and Florida Power Light and their unique legal/regulatory relationship. In a classic case of nothing to see here, both take advantage of the regulatory environment to gain rate base and market share as well as access to Wall Street investment capital. John Prine’s “Living in the Future” couldn’t be more accurate when one thinks that we have now come nearly full circle on the deregulation of the electric power energy sector. This mess makes Dodge City feel tame. MISO runs out of juice and calls on other ISO’s to bail them out and the others are struggling to meet their own demand. The New England States continue to set records on the speed in which they are doubling down on stupid to show, place and win, Maine a great example is doing its best to shutter the two sectors that make money, tourism and lobster fishing as they gleefully describe the fishing grounds of the Gulf of Maine as the Saudi Arabia of wind generation. The current governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and former AG, is trying to distance herself from her successful lawsuits that ran Kinder Morgan and another pipeline developer off, and leave the state with the specter of buying LNG from now until the cows come in. Which will be a long time, since they want to ban cows, because of their methane gas emissions. Pay no attention to that wind turbine generator blade washing up on the beaches of Nantucket. The Horror. Go west young man look at California’s ongoing efforts to remove the Potter Valley Dam System, a 120 year old system that supplies local load and water resources for two counties. What possibly could go wrong? Nothing of course since those stalwart owners of the project Pacific Gas and Electric are right there in the mix with the looney bin in Sacramento, aka the state legislature. You can trust PG&E they are not like the others! Just ask their law firm, Dewy, Cheatham and Howe! In the final analysis this will come to a head in various states, as the tax payer and their shadow the rate payer look at a price of electric power delivered to their meter at .50 cents a kilowatt. Until then, as they say in Maine, it is 11 months of winter and one month of damn tough sledding. It will get much worse before it gets better. Paraphrasing Dean Wormer in Animal House “living in the cold and dark is no way to go through life.” That is correct Dean, but it will be reality here shortly.
Great comment Charles! The hidden costs of Wind/solar due to a necessity for also having dispatchable back available as a result of their very low production capacity ratio in comparison to dispatchable is only one of the problems, the other being the grid dynamics that need to be in place to handle both local and regional dynamics. Restarting closures has limitations in that all of those facilities are old, with many patches to keep them operating long after their full depreciation. New Natural gas combined cycle systems is the way to go, increasing fossil fuel thermal efficiencies by a ratio of 1.8 over Rankine cycle and standard GT peakers, but the green new deal collapsed market for turbines over the past administration's emphasis on "no more fossil energy" stifled industry growth and delivery times of new systems have soared to several years from 2 months since April '25.
Plus the new turbines like the GE Frame 7 series can now (to a degree) load follow. That is a huge benefit for a lot of reasons. All we can do is keep trying to get the attention of the public writ large and "educate" them to the perils of wind and solar at the utility scale level that we are now having to deal with, particularly their expensive knock on effects on grid stability.
EBBs, this is your money quote!
"Our country has built hundreds of thousands of megawatts (MW) of new capacity in the last decade during a period of low to no energy demand growth, and still has an energy supply crisis—people should start asking why. The answer is that most of this new capacity has been inefficient wind and solar generators that do next to nothing to actually contributing to reliability."
There is, I think, a way to combat this in many places. That is to use the "used and useful" doctrine to trim additions to rate base to what the generating sources actually contribute to service delivery. Assets that are quiet all night, or disappear at any time of day or night, by any reasonable definition are only partially "used and useful." It'll set off some fights in court, but that is preferable to the entire country being saddled with California or worse (UK) rates. Some states' enabling legislation does not mention "used and useful" but quite a lot does.
Totally agree. We’re working on legislation to that degree, too!
EBBs, any ideas how to reverse the unreliables generation percentage in California? Per CAISO, as of 10/08/25, California had 21,722 MW of solar, 8,355 MW of wind, and 14,248.69 MW of 4-hour batteries. Californians for Green Nuclear Power maintains the perspective this is "junk power" because it requires dispatchable fossil-fired, large hydro and nuclear power generation for this 44,325.69 MW of solar+wind+batteries power to be useful. For details, see: https://www.caiso.com/documents/key-statistics-sep-2025.pdf
Break it off into the ocean 😂
To read that we are still suffering the aftermath of Joe’s Green New Deal with unscrupulous access to the dumb subsidies. What a pointless grift. Why is nobody legislating that AI projects integrate their power needs behind the fence, independent of the grid?
IIRC, Texas tried and the RINOs wouldn't vote for it. I may be remembering wrong. Faint memory, low reliability.
This is criminal to be putting on ratepayers backs with everything we know about unreliables 👇
The utilities reported that 62 percent of their expected future additions would be wind, solar, or battery storage. This is down slightly from the 71 percent estimate in early 2025, reflecting a nod to the reality that we’ll need reliable power to meet rising demand for data centers, but this still represents a massive amount of malinvestment on the power system.
Americans 🇺🇸 need the ARC… failure for this legislation to become the energy law of the land means what happens to our energy bills per Jason’s article here, therefore, failure is NOT an option…
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/11/09/america_at_250_needs_energy_overhaul_arc_is_the_place_to_start_153507.html
Thanks for the link to the Affordable, Reliable, Clean (ARC) energy policy advocated for by Rep. Troy Balderson. It should be obvious by now that the CAR approach has four flat tires! Energy Secretary Wright also needs to rescind the improperly-issued DoE LPO loans issued after President Trump was elected, but before he took office.
Spot on gentlemen. Nice article. I’d like to point out that we ain’t seen nothing yet. Interconnection tariffs typically require the project developer to front the money for the cost of new grid upgrades. The utility pays the developer back over 5 years or so after the project becomes operational. The expenditure is added to the rate base as these payments are made. If you apply to connect a battery in California today it will become operational in 2032 and cost at least $30 million to connect. The rate increases are locked in until 2037 even if we quit today.
And as @DaveWalshEnergy reports the NatGas turbine manufacturers are prioritizing the data-centers in front of regular American infrastructure. That tells you the wheels are off and the 'green' movement will start dying as reality hits; think of it as "we will create smaller nuclear reactors and then figure out what do do with the waste." type of moment.
Great tune- "Living in the Future"!
I 100% concur with - "you need to pay attention to Integrated Resource Plans and rate cases filed at utility commissions today.” Thanks for all the hard work you guys have put into giving us a heads up on whats coming down the pike!
If had a cd player I'd review whats on my February 29, 2012 Pacific Gas and Electric Company Rate Design Window A. 12-2-XXX cd. I have lots of the paper filings from that time frame, but I have lost electronic data files over the years...
Americans can take comfort in the fact that their energy sector is nowhere near as fucked as Europe's. Here in the UK, I've already bought a gas cannister stove and am looking at generators.
So I guess the US is the best horse in the glue factory?
Lol. Too true.
The future of electricity comes down to who can deliver firm, low cost power at scale. Everything else is secondary.
Variable generation will play a role, but it won’t anchor an economy. The countries and companies that secure stable baseload will own manufacturing, AI infrastructure and long term cost advantages.
Electricity systems shape economic power. The places that treat firm energy as the foundation instead of an afterthought are the ones that win the next decade.
Interesting as usual boys. What I am seeing with AEP is some massive investments in expansion of their 765KV network. New generation must be in a different market because that's news to me. But two big 765KV projects, one along the East Coast to tap the Northern Virginia data center market, and a new network in Texas. They are building 345kV and 138kV lines around here to serve the New Albany data campus like putting up connex. Tons of Transmission everywhere if you explore. If you want tolls, you need to build the toll road.
https://www.aeptransmission.com
One paradigm for explaining the entire climate crisis is as a way to squeeze more money out of consumers in the stable, unchanging environment of electricity generation, by making it volatile and unreliable.
Illegal Smile! I sure miss him! Nice summary of the incredible grift and legal corruption.
Why aren’t NYSEG/Avangrid or National Grid in these charts?
Unfortunately the incentive structures for utilities is completely misaligned with providing efficient baseload power. They make their money by building new infrastructure, and what better way to make a quick buck than to build highly unreliable, massive utility scale solar and wind projects that will never provide the nameplate capacity, and will have to be torn down and replaced in less than two decades.
IF you build it they will pay for it
Sure do miss John Prine! Here's one to brighten your day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRthPKsrGHU